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Wanlian Securities--Non-ferrous Metals Industry Week Viewpoint: Copper prices fall at a high level, alert to the shock after the lead price festival [Industry Research]

Click volume:Number of reply: 0Report Nan Keru dream Published on 2019-02-01 15:37:45

[Summary of research report content]

    The high price of copper fell, and the pre-holiday light-selling was mainly: this week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced that it would lower the 2019 world growth forecast, suggesting that the global economic growth is downside risk, saying that the escalation of trade tension is the main source of risk. In addition, this week, the People's Bank of China launched the TMLF operation for the first time. The disguised targeted interest rate cut also showed the central bank's concerns about the economic downturn expectations. Therefore, the copper price has been adjusted back this week. In addition, the market sentiment of clearing stocks and avoiding risks before the holiday is strong. The rallies of shippers are strong and the number of pick-ups is relatively small. At present, copper prices have entered a downward channel. Be cautious about short-term investments in the copper sector and focus on long-term investment prices.

    Lead prices rebounded and watched for shocks after the holiday: the continued decline in the lead inventory caused the market's attention, this week, the lead price has reached a new high of nearly three months, if the inventory continues to decline, there is still momentum to continue to strengthen. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream battery companies have stopped preparing for the pre-holiday and have entered the holiday mode. The operating rate of many primary lead refineries has dropped, and the smelter has begun to correct the type of inspection at the end of the year. It should be wary that Shanghai and Shanghai lead will fall after the short-term rise. Avoid short-term investments in the down channel of lead plates.

    Tax reduction measures to enhance market optimism: On January 17, 2019, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued the Caishui [2019] No. 13 Document on the Implementation of the Inclusive Tax Deduction Policy for Small and Micro Enterprises; January 19, 2019, The State Administration of Taxation issued the General Taxation [2019] No. 13 "Notice on Deeply Implementing the Policy Measures for Tax Reduction and Reduction"; after the "Notice" on January 19 was introduced, the market began to expect to apply to a larger scale and a larger scope. The company's VAT is lowered. While raising market optimism, it can reduce production costs and stimulate consumption.

    Risk warning: capacity release exceeds expectations; large-scale systemic risk; policy uncertainty risk.

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