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Essence Securities--Power Equipment Industry: Industry Hand in Hand, Waiting for Boots to Land [Industry Research]

Click volume:Number of reply: 0Report Shuangfeiyan 22 Published on 2019-02-01 17:02:56

[Summary of research report content]

    Fund position analysis: multi-sub-sector positions increased. Through the estimation of the top ten Awkwardness of the fund, the new industry accounted for 5.57% of the fund's total position in the fourth quarter of 2018, up 0.53% from Q3. The number of positions held by the company increased by 11 and the market value increased by 7.7%. Among the top ten companies in the position, Tongwei, BYD and Zhengtai Electric were newly added companies, and Huayou Cobalt, Hanrui Cobalt and Hongfa were transferred from the top ten.

    Among the top ten Awkwardness of the fund, the market value of the photovoltaic sector company accounted for 2.04%, which was a significant increase from the 1.07% of Q3.

    Among them, Longji shares are the first Awkwardness shares, Q4 holds a share ratio of 1.07%; Tongwei shares and Sunshine Power are transferred the most, and the number of positions increased by 170 million shares and 120 million shares respectively. In addition, the UHV concept stock holdings accounted for 0.47%, an increase of 0.22%.

    The holdings of the new energy vehicle sector showed a clear trend of shifting from upstream to midstream. Compared with Q3, the proportion of positions held by upstream metal resources companies and the number of heavy-duty institutions has decreased significantly; the proportion of positions in mid-stream batteries, battery materials and parts, and lithium-electric equipment has increased significantly. 1) From the perspective of absolute indicators, the companies with the most increase in heavy positions are BYD, Pioneer Intelligence, and Xinwangda; the companies with the highest number of shares transferred are Xinwangda, Dangsheng Technology, and Yiwei Lithium Energy. 2) From the perspective of relative indicators, the most important increase in the proportion of positions is BYD, Dangsheng Technology, and Xinwangda.

    Investment suggestion: From the perspective of positions, large-cap companies are still the institution's first choice. From the perspective of the sector, under the stimulus of the policy, the new energy and UHV markets are improving and are favored by more institutions. We believe that the new energy sector has already ushered in the bottom of the policy and the bottom of demand. Among them, with the improvement of cost and technological progress, the photovoltaic industry is expected to realize the parity of the power generation side in advance in 19 years, and the global installed capacity is expected to exceed 120GW. Photovoltaic key recommendation of Tongwei shares, Longji shares, Zhengtai Electric, etc., it is recommended to focus on the industrial chain related to Sunshine Power, Beijing Express, Central shares, solar energy, etc.; wind power mainly recommend Goldwind Technology, Tianshun Wind Energy, etc., it is recommended to pay attention to Tianneng Heavy Industry, Zhenjiang, Hengrun, Riyue, Jinlei Wind Power, etc.

    UHV has now approved 2 pay and 2 straight, the overall rhythm exceeded expectations. In 19/20, it will be the main equipment manufacturer to deliver the new year, and the company has high performance flexibility. Key recommendations: Pinggao Electric, Xu Ji Electric, Guodian Nanrui, China Xidian and TBEA.

    Structural changes have taken place in the new energy vehicle sector. The upstream lithium and cobalt links have decreased due to lower price positions; the proportion of midstream materials and equipment companies has increased. At present, under the policy uncertainty, the preferential subsidy policy has little impact: 1) Battery, high-quality battery capacity is still in short supply for 19 years, battery leader has higher bargaining power, key recommendation: Ningde era, it is recommended to pay attention to Yiwei lithium energy , Xinwangda; 2) Material link leader with more stable profitability, key recommendations: Dangsheng Technology, Xinzhoubang, it is recommended to pay attention to Tianci materials; 3) Materials and parts manufacturers with higher proportion of overseas business, key recommendation: Dangsheng Technology, Xinzhoubang, Yutailai, Shanshan, Enjie, Xingyuan Materials, Sanhua Zhizhi, etc.

    Risk warning: the pace or intensity of the relevant industry policies is lower than expected; the production and sales of new energy vehicles and wind power PV are lower than expected.

    This week's portfolio: Tongwei, Longji, Ningde Times, Yiwei Lithium, Dangsheng Technology, Xinzhoubang, Goldwind Technology, Tianshun Wind Energy, Zhengtai Electric, Pinggao Electric

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