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Wanlian Securities--Banking Monthly Report: Compressed bill business, medium and long-term loans remain stable [Industry Research]

Click volume:Number of reply: 0Report Border town god Published on 2019-03-14 10:33:09

[Summary of research report content]

    event:

    The People's Bank of China announced financial statistics for February 2019.

    Investment points:

    The bill business slowed down, and the expected slowdown will continue: the increase in social welfare in February was 703 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4,864 trillion. Combined with the comprehensive data of January and February, the growth rate of the stock of the social welfare fell from 10.4% in January to 10.1% in February. Judging from the overall incremental structure of the social welfare, the bill business has slowed down significantly under the guidance of the policy. At the end of February, the unredeemed acceptance bills outside the table were less than 310.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 320.9 billion yuan. From the current data, this kind of data The trend will continue in March. In addition, the comprehensive non-standard financing outside the table only reduced by 21.6 billion yuan, which is still in the process of continuous improvement from the perspective of the ring.

    In the first two months of the year, the medium and long-term loans were basically stable, and there was some pressure on the personal short-term loans. In February, new RMB loans were 885.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.5 billion yuan. Among them, the bill financing in the table in February only increased by 169.5 billion yuan. In the January-February period, the new RMB loan was 4.11 trillion yuan, an increase of 374.8 billion yuan year-on-year, which is still the contribution of the bill business. From a structural point of view, medium and long-term loans of non-financial companies and residents have remained basically stable, with no significant growth. There is a certain pressure on the growth of personal short-term loans. The total short-term loans for the first two months have decreased by 300 million yuan, compared with 263.7 billion yuan in the same period of 2018. The new pressure in March is relatively high.

    Deposit growth is still relatively weak. The total deposits in January-February increased by 1 trillion more than the same period of last year, mainly benefiting from the increase in resident deposits and fiscal deposits, which increased by 1.45 trillion and 405.7 billion yuan respectively. In January-February, the total non-bank deposits dropped significantly, with a decrease of 1.7 trillion yuan year-on-year. In terms of corporate deposits, the year-on-year decline was 1.6 trillion yuan, and the decline was reduced by nearly 800 billion yuan. In February, the growth rate of M1 rebounded, while M0 was affected by cash withdrawal after the holiday, and the growth rate turned negative.

    Investment strategy: The internal and external bill financing is passively compressed. It is expected that the slowdown will continue and the medium and long-term loans will remain stable. With the effect of the stability credit policy gradually appearing and superimposing the low base effect of 2018 and 2-3 quarters, it is expected that the growth rate of social welfare will remain stable. It is expected that the performance of the first quarter of 2019 will maintain steady growth and the valuation of the sector will remain stable. We maintain the board's investment rating for the whole year, which is stronger than the general trend, and we recommend the state-owned big bank.

    Risk factors: industry regulation exceeded expectations; market downturns presented systemic risks.

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