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    Real estate tax is really coming soon? Will it increase the tax burden of ordinary residents?

    2019-03-14 08:17:59

    Suning Financial Research Institute Huang Zhilong

    "steadily advancereal estateTax legislationThis is a new reference to this year's government work report.

    The capital market, which has always been a forerunner, reacted fiercely after this new formulation came out – the stock price of the real estate sector fell sharply for three consecutive days. The market realized that the real estate tax that had been called for years was really coming.

    Further in-depth analysis of the real-time tax reform task time nodes, the basic conditions of landing, local financial pressure and other signs, we predict that the completion of the real estate tax legislation process may be much faster than everyone expected.

    1

    First look at the time node of the introduction of real estate tax

    In the Third Plenary Session of the Eighteenth Central Committee in 2013, the "Decision on Comprehensively Deepening the Reform of Some Major Issues" clearly stated that "by 2020, we will achieve decisive results in reforms in important areas and key links, and complete the reform tasks proposed in this decision." “Accelerating real estate tax legislation and promoting reforms in a timely manner” is one of the “important areas and key links”.

    Subsequently, from the report on government work over the years since 2014, it can be seen that the real estate tax legislation has been advancing in accordance with the above-mentioned predetermined goals, without obvious delay or lag.

    The expression of the 2014 government work report is “Doing a good job in real estate tax and environmental protection tax legislation”;

    The 2015-2017 government work report has not seen a new formulation, which means that these three years are the stage in which the relevant departments study and formulate real estate tax plans;

    In 2018, the government work report revisited the “stable promotion of real estate tax legislation”. This statement echoes the rumors that the “Real Estate Tax Law has been solicited within the system” in the April 21st Century Economic Report. The word “safe” It also shows that the key task in 2018 is to resolve differences between departments;

    The latest statement of the 2019 government work report is “steadily advancing real estate tax legislation”. The difference between “steady” and “stable” may mean that the differences between departments have been initially resolved and formally entered the legislative process. On March 8th, the National People's Congress proposed the “Provision of Real Estate Tax Law” in this year's legislative work arrangement, which also verified the progress of this work.

    Therefore, if we only look at the time node of the 2020 reform task, it is more likely that the real estate tax legislation will be completed this year or at the latest next year.

    2

    Let’s look at the basic conditions for the implementation of real estate tax

    First, in June 2018, the national unified real estate registration information platform has been networked, and China's real estate registration system has entered a comprehensive operation stage. After the real estate registration information is connected nationwide, different types of real estate will be unified and aggregated on the national platform. The “information island” between different regions and different departments will be completely broken. In addition, the "Notice on Compressing the Registration Time of Real Estate" just issued by the State Council requires a substantial reduction in the registration period of real estate, and the quality of real estate registration data should reach a "perfect" level by 2020. In this way, it provides a practical and operational platform for real estate tax collection.

    Second, the 2019 special tax deduction policy will be officially launched. The interest rate of the first home loan will be included in the deduction. This will reduce the tax burden of ordinary families. On the other hand, it will further collect information on family housing in the country. The levy creates conditions.

    On the whole, the collection of real estate tax has been “everything is ready” and only owes the “east wind” of the legislative process and subsequent rules.

    3

    Let’s look at the legislative procedure for the introduction of the real estate tax law.

    When it comes to the legislative process, many people believe that the legislation on real estate tax will go through a long process. However, the situation in the last three years is different from what you imagined. Among the 17 legislative tasks that were formulated, revised and reviewed by the National People’s Congress in 2018, 14 were entered into the final review or reviewed and approved. 82%, while the proportions in 2017 and 2016 were 95% and 68.2% respectively. On March 8, 2019, the National People's Congress clearly proposed the legislative arrangement for the establishment of the Real Estate Tax Law in 2019. According to historical experience, this expression will accelerate the completion of the real estate tax legislative process, and the possibility of real estate tax legislation entering the final review in 2019. More than 60%.

    It should be pointed out that the real estate tax law is a general law, which is different from the long legislative process of the Basic Law such as the Property Law. It does not need to be submitted to the National People's Congress of the two associations for approval. It should only be considered by the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress.

    In summary, the legislative process will not delay the introduction of the real estate tax law.

    4

    Finally, look at the real factors of the accelerated introduction of real estate tax

    The latest round of real estate destocking, known by the industry as "the last carnival of real estate companies." The real estate circle big 佬 Feng Lun judged:When the real estate enters the post-development era, the era of stocks is coming.

    This view, there is a large amount of data to support.

    According to data disclosed by the Center for Urban and Competitive Research of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the per capita living area of ​​urban residents reached 40.8 square meters in 2018, and the household-to-house ratio reached 1.13, while the per capita living area of ​​the United States, Japan, Germany, and the United Kingdom was 67 square meters and 19.6 square meters. 39.4 square meters and 35.4 square meters, the household ratio is 1.15, 1.16, 1.02 and 1.03 respectively. It can be seen that the living conditions of Chinese people are comparable to those of developed countries.

    This living condition was achieved in just 20 years. From 2000 to 2018, the per capita living space of urban residents in China increased from 20.3 square meters to 40.8 square meters, which doubled. Among them, from 2000 to 2018, the total completed area of ​​commercial housing in urban areas reached 13.5 billion square meters. It can be said that the leap-forward development of China's real estate market is a journey of more than half a century in developed countries in just two decades.

    It is worth noting that after the completion of the commercial housing completion area in 2013-2015, the completed area has been lower in recent years (see the figure below), which confirmsThe development space for new housing and incremental markets is getting smaller and smaller, and the era of stocks is gradually getting closer.

    The arrival of the stock room era is not only reflected in the trade-off between new homes and second-hand housing transactions, but also verified in the land trading market.

    At the end of 2018, the national housing market to be developed land area of ​​456 million square meters, another record high in the past decade. The large increase in land inventories has been reflected in the land trading market in the past six months – the land transaction area of ​​the 100 largest cities in China has experienced a substantial negative growth in most months (see the chart below); the total land transaction price in January and February 2019 was 397.3 billion yuan. It is only 12% of the whole year of 2018 (3.33 trillion yuan).

    The downturn in the land market will increase the financial pressure of local governments and open up new sources of local fiscal revenue.

    In fact, in the two government work reports from 2018 to 2019, the proposal to promote the real estate tax legislation “steadily” or “steadily” has adopted the “sound local tax system” as the pre-target. This shows thatReal estate tax will become the main source of tax revenue for local fiscal revenue in the future.

    On the whole, the real estate tax will not land in the end, but it may accelerate.

    Recently, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development clearly stated that the spirit of regulation and control of the central government has not changed.Under this megatrend, those investors who hold a large number of real estates across the country will be affected by the real estate tax. These groups need to plan ahead and adjust their asset allocation structure in advance.

    For ordinary families, the impact of the introduction of real estate tax is relatively limited. Even if it is fully levied, there will be certain exemption areas or tax refund policy arrangements after tax payment. In other words, real estate taxes do not significantly increase the tax burden of ordinary residents.

    Hot searchReal estate tax Environmental protection tax Transaction area

    Editor in charge: Li Limeng RF13188

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