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    Qi Junjie: There are huge losses everywhere! Why is Ray Thunder rolling?

    2019-01-30 10:25:29

    Financial sector websiteQi Junjie

    Author: Finance columnist, C AND investors  

    According to the requirements of the exchange, companies with large changes in performance, or profit-to-loss, loss-to-profit, must perform pre-disclosure of performance, and must be completed before January 31, so we will see that these days At the beginning of the thunder, the sound of thunder was everywhere.

    such asNanning Sugar IndustryIt is disclosed that the company expects a loss of 1.31 billion yuan to 1.395 billion yuan in 2018. It is necessary to know that his market value is only 1.77 billion, which is equivalent to this loss and almost lost all market value. SimilarHualu BainaThe total market value is 3.6 billion, and the net loss in 2018 is as high as 3.3 billion. These companies, when the year is good, can earn tens of millions of dollars a year, or hundreds of millions of dollars is good, and in 2018, there have been cases of losing more than one billion or even billions. It is inevitable that people will be confused.

    In the past three days, a total of 90 companies disclosed pre-loss announcements, of which 68 lost 100 million, 24 companies lost more than 1 billion, and 9 companies lost more than 2 billion. There are still many previous star companies, such as China. Recording Baina,Xining Special Steel, Renfu Pharmaceutical,Shield environment,Shengyun Environmental Protection,Ocean motorand many more.

    Some analysts have given an explanation, saying that this is caused by a large amount of goodwill. What is goodwill, which we have said before, is that the premium part of the acquisition company is higher than the net value, such as one out of one. Billion acquisition of the old Qi company, and I am here in addition to the table and chair bench is the computer, the office is also rented, no valuable fixed assets, all together less than 1 million, so 99 million have become goodwill, deposited in the acquisition On the balance sheet of the party, I promised to make a profit of 10 million yuan per year with the performance of the acquirer. If it can be completed, this thing will remain unchanged. If the old company is lazy and does not work, the company is expected to only complete 1 million, then Goodwill is expected to be impaired in the same proportion, indicating that your asset is worthless. The acquisition of my company will require nearly 90 million impairment provision, which will lead to a sharp fall in the performance of the acquirer. For example, st Zhongnan is expected to lose 1.8 billion yuan, but 1.5-1.7 billion are all goodwill impairment provisions.

    Why is this happening, is it really that the companies that have acquired these companies have a poor performance? I am afraid not necessarily, this is caused by policy changes. At the beginning of the year, the Ministry of Finance issued a dynamic of corporate accounting standards, which mentioned a treatment method for the impairment of corporate outsourcing goodwill, and plans to use goodwill for 10 years. Law, for example, a listed company with a profit of 50 million a year, and a company with a goodwill of 20 billion. The latter’s goodwill is amortized over ten years, and the amortization loss will reach 2 billion a year, but in fact, the company’s year The profit can reach 1.9 billion per year. It is a good company, but the response is on the statement, that is, 2 billion to 1.9 billion + 50 million profit, showing an overall loss of 50 million.

    So how much impact on A shares? It is understood that A shares of 1.45 trillion goodwill, if all amortized according to ten years, will have an annual loss of 145 billion. If all are amortized over 20 years, there will be an additional $72.5 billion in losses each year. The impact on listed companies may be even greater, because according to the requirements of delisting, the two-year loss becomes st, the three-year loss is the * number st, and then the delisting, if you want to amortize goodwill according to this method, then many companies The performance can not beat the amortization of goodwill, so it must be a loss for years, and finally delisted. So everyone is in a hurry, and this policy has not yet landed, concentrated, and written off. Let’s say that the goodwill is lost at one time.

    The stock price plummeted and recognized. Anyway, the market is not good now, the financing can't be melted, and the additional issuance can't be made. The management doesn't want to cash out. It's too lazy to manage the stock price. Let's save the listing qualification first, and this is completely ok. To be done, the companies that have been acquired are not listed, and the performance is mostly unregulated. Therefore, as long as the performance is ruined this year, the goodwill can be devalued. In other words, there is no performance this year. Very simple, adjust a lot of contracts, pay in advance this year, such as paying off the purchase costs for the next three years, and keep all the income in next year, so this year only the expenditure has no income, the performance will be bad, do not want, the holding The company's performance has plummeted, and listed companies have been able to significantly reduce the goodwill of the company, so there has been a miraculous scene, almost a year lost market value.

    Therefore, the performance statement has suffered a large loss, but the real situation has not changed at all. The business operation is still good. One-time elimination of these goodwill is beneficial to the release of the company’s performance in the future. After the subsidiary company contributes its performance, it is all incremental. The future performance will definitely improve greatly. Just now we also said that the expenditures are counted in this year. The income will be put into next year. This year, the huge loss, then the next year will definitely be a big profit, and even if the accounting system is adjusted, there is no need to amortize the goodwill. It is. So this is actually a huge opportunity. Investors who don’t know the truth, when they see huge losses, the stock price has fallen sharply, but in fact many companies have the potential to surge in future performance.

    Before Lao Qi repeatedly stressed that the 2018 annual report is definitely the worst. There is no doubt that there is a natural disaster and a disaster. In addition, the market is rather bad. No one will be willing to release the performance at this time. Bad debts, one-time bathing of performance, and the elimination of those toxic assets, by the time of the 2019 mid-year report, everyone will find that performance will start to rise significantly. Therefore, don't worry too much about the huge losses in the performance of the thunder. There is no change in management, just scraping bones and treating poison.

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