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Guo Shiliang: China Life’s performance has been greatly reduced. Why is the performance change frequently staged?
Financial sector websiteGuo Shiliang
Author: Financial commentator, financial website columnist Guo Shi Liang
Near the disclosure period of listed companies' annual reports, the annual report performance forecast of listed companies in the A-share market has also begun to be intensively released. However, precisely at this time, the listed company's annual report performance forecast minefield is frequently staged, even if it is part of the white horse blue chip listed company, it is difficult to escape the problem of changing face.
Among them, the most representative case is the previous one.SinopecDue to the large transaction losses, the stock price fluctuated drastically. In the near term, a representative listed company also includes Kang Dexin andChina Life Insurance.
Among them, the former triggered other risk warning situations because the bank account was frozen. At the same time, it was also suspected that the funds were occupied and the information disclosure was illegal. Not only was the ST handled, but it was also investigated by the CSRC. The former White Horse stocks have fallen into the altar. As for the latter, it is because the public market equity investment income has decreased significantly year-on-year, which has led to a significant risk of the listed company's annual report performance.
In fact, in addition to the listed companies mentioned above, there have been a number of listed companies whose performance has changed in the past. E.g,Renfu MedicinePerformance pre-loss,Shield environmentThe performance forecast was transferred from profit to loss, and ST Guanfu also predicted that the performance would change from profit to loss.
From Sinopec to Kangdexin, to China Life Insurance and other listed companies, the risk of performance changes in the recent period has gradually expanded from ordinary listed companies to Baima blue-chip listed companies. However, looking at the reasons for the changes in the performance of listed companies, they often have certain commonalities.
Among them, Sinopec and China Life Insurance, for example, are mostly related to factors such as loss of investment transactions or decline in income from investment in open market equity. This is related to the continued weakness of the market environment during the same period. However, the control of the investment market environment and the changes in investment income are more or less related to investment strategies and human factors, and the performance changes themselves have certain unknown factors.
In addition, the reasons for the change in the performance of listed companies are inseparable from factors such as impairment of goodwill and impairment of assets. It is worth mentioning that after the intensive mergers and acquisitions of listed companies in the past few years, the excessive frequency of mergers and acquisitions and the scale of mergers and acquisitions continued to rise, but to a certain extent, the total goodwill of listed companies has grown rapidly. In just a few years, the total size of goodwill in the A-share market has also experienced explosive growth, but behind the huge commercial reputation, there is inevitably a certain unknown risk.
Specifically, for example, the risk of a listed company's performance against gambling and commitment is not up to standard, the economic environment and the risk of deterioration of the industrial cycle. However, the emergence of this series of problems reflects the high-merger M&A risks of listed companies in the early stage, while the excessively high-value M&A behaviors are likely to lead to the impairment of goodwill of listed companies. As a result, the performance of goodwill impairment, especially for industries with significant impairment of goodwill, and even listed companies, will inevitably have the risk of sudden face changes.
In 2019, after the process of vigorous deleveraging and defoaming, the overall valuation level and investment risk of the A-share market have shown signs of significant decline. However, for listed companies, it is still difficult to escape local investment risks. For example, the risk of impairment of goodwill of listed companies is likely to cause sudden changes in the performance of listed companies. Another example is that the listed company's equity pledge closing risk, the listed company with high pledge rate and lack of pledge and margin replenishment ability, may trigger the liquidation of equity pledge, and even unpredictable liquidity pressure.
The intensive disclosure of the annual report is precisely the intensive disclosure period of the listed company's performance forecast. However, for the performance of listed companies, the phenomenon of face-changing is actually an important time point for the listed company's operating risks and even the concentration of investment risks. When the bottom of the market valuation is basically established, the real market bottom of the stock market is also Not far away.
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