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    Fu Yifu: Provinces rich in enemy countries See where is Jiangsu's GDP in the world?

    2019-01-30 10:29:20

    Financial sector websiteFu Yifu

    Author: Suning Financial Consumer Institute Center for Financial Research senior researcher at Fu Yifu  

    Recently, economic data of various provinces across the country were announced in 2018. With a total economic output of 9.73 trillion yuan, Guangdong won the championship without any suspense.

    However, when people were amazed by the “rich enemies” in Guangdong, few people noticed that the provinces that can be called “rich countries” are not the only ones in Guangdong – Jiangsu’s GDP reached 9.26 trillion yuan, second only to Guangdong ranks second in the country and is significantly ahead of the third Shandong province of 7.6 trillion yuan.

    Guangdong and Jiangsu have jointly contributed more than one-fifth of the national GDP. Looking at the world, Jiangsu’s economy is as large as that of most countries.

    Jiangsu GDP is worth an Australian

    At the second meeting of the 13th People's Congress of Jiangsu Province held on January 14, 2019, Jiangsu Provincial Governor Wu Zhenglong pointed out in the government work report that in 2018, the total GDP of Jiangsu Province reached 9.26 trillion. Yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%; local general public budget revenue of 863 billion yuan, an increase of 5.6%; urban and rural residents per capita disposable income of 47,200 yuan and 20,800 yuan, an increase of 8.2% and 8.8%.

    At the same time, the major implementation projects of 228 provinces in Jiangsu Province completed an investment of 530 billion yuan, which led to a 5.5% increase in fixed asset investment; the output value of strategic emerging industries and high-tech industries increased by 8.8% and 11% respectively, and the proportion increased to 32% and 43.8%. The added value of high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing increased by 11.1% and 8% respectively, higher than that of above-scale industries by 6 and 2.9 percentage points; the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 8.2%; the newly added employment of urban areas was 1.53 million, and supported by 301,000 Successful entrepreneurship led to the employment of 1,12280 thousand people and the urban registered unemployment rate of 2.97%.

    If Guangdong is truly a "rich enemy", is Jiangsu not?

    According to the average exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB published by the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center in 2018, Jiangsu's GDP in 2018 is about 1.4 trillion US dollars, only 0.07 trillion US dollars less than Guangdong.

    What is the level of this in the world?

    Since the economic data of countries around the world have not been fully announced in 2018, we may wish to compare them with the 2017 data. According to Wind data, in 2017, the United States and China ranked the top two in the world in terms of economic rankings, followed by Japan, Germany, and the United Kingdom; South Korea and Australia ranked 12th in the economy of $1,530.75 billion and $132.42 billion, respectively. Name and 13th place (see Figure 1). Based on this data, we can clearly see thatThe GDP of Jiangsu in 2018 is slightly higher than that of Australia in 2017, while the ranking is after South Korea and before Australia.

     The provinces of the rich countries are not only in Guangdong, but what is the global GDP of Jiangsu?

    Considering that the economies of the world still grow in 2018, we can roughly get the conclusion that Jiangsu's economy is comparable to Australia and higher than Spain, the Netherlands, Switzerland, etc. If Jiangsu is eligible to participate in the global economic rankings, then Can rank 13th or 14th in the world.

    It must be admitted that this achievement is very eye-catching.

    The province with the largest number of members of the "Trillion Club"

    The reason why Jiangsu economic transcripts are so bright is inseparable from the contributions of various cities in the province. In fact, in Jiangsu, a strong economic province, there are many economically strong cities, and the “Trillion Club” is a very good reference dimension.

    So-called"Trillion Club"It refers to cities with annual GDP reaching or exceeding RMB 1 trillion. Although the era of "the hero of GDP only" has gradually disappeared, as a hard indicator of urban economic development, GDP breakthrough of trillions is still a thing that many cities dream of and feel glorious.

    At the same time, in a city, after the economy reaches a certain scale, the ability to attract talents, gather resources and radiate the surrounding areas will be further enhanced, and more energy will be developed to develop public services, transportation, and environmental protection. Waiting for the people's livelihood field, thus driving the higher quality development of the whole city, this is also the meaning of the "Trillion Club".

    By the end of 2018, there were 16 cities on the list of “Trillion Clubs” across the country, and Jiangsu Province occupied 3 of them.

    According to the wind related data,Among the 13 prefecture-level cities in Jiangsu Province, the top three economies are Suzhou, Nanjing and Wuxi.The three have entered the “Trillion Club” in 2011, 2016 and 2017 respectively (see Figure 2), and the average annual economic growth rate since 2008 has reached 9.2%, 10.3% and 9.25%, respectively. The momentum is quite rapid. In addition, the three cities have their own unique characteristics. The Suzhou Industrial Park is a model for the economic development of the national park. Nanjing has a strong scientific and educational strength and a comprehensive industrial layout. Wuxi has a natural location advantage and a vibrant township enterprise. It has well supported the continuous improvement of the province's economy.

     The provinces of the rich countries are not only in Guangdong, but what is the global GDP of Jiangsu?

    It is worth noting thatIn addition to the above three “Trillion Club” members, there are still many “potential stocks” in Jiangsu Province.Statistics from the Jiangsu Provincial Bureau of Statistics show that in 2018, there were as many as six cities with an economic scale of 500 billion to 100 billion yuan, namely Nantong (842.7 billion yuan), Changzhou (705.027 billion yuan) and Xuzhou (675.523 billion yuan). ), Yancheng (548.708 billion yuan), Yangzhou (546.617 billion yuan) and Taizhou (510.763 billion yuan), and Nantong is expected to become the fourth city in Jiangsu to enter the "trillion club".

    In contrast, Zhejiang Province in the East China region counts two “trillion club” cities in Hangzhou and Ningbo, and only four cities with a total economic output of more than 500 billion yuan; and Hunan, Hubei, Sichuan, Shaanxi, Many provinces such as Jilin have an extremely obvious "one city alone" feature.

    Not only that,Jiangsu also has a county economy that is strong and envious of other provinces.According to the China County Economic Development Report (2018) issued by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Jiangsu ranks among the top 25 in the top 100 counties in the country, with Zhejiang and Shandong occupying 21 seats and 19 seats. Guangdong has only two entries. This proves from one side that Jiangsu's county economic development level is the highest in the country.

    With the economic development pattern of “multi-polar drive” and “county support”, Jiangsu's economy has relatively more tenacity, and its prospects are extremely promising.

    When will the Jiangsu economy enter the top ten in the world?

    At present, the economic aggregate of Jiangsu Province has approached South Korea, and the growth momentum is still rapid; in contrast, most countries in front of Jiangsu have relatively weak economic growth. For example, in South Korea, Russia, Canada, and Italy, GDP growth in 2017 was only 3.06%, 1.55%, 3.33%, and 1.5%, respectively, while Jiangsu's GDP growth rate was as high as 7.15%. It is foreseeable that according to the current situation, it is only a matter of time before the Jiangsu economy surpasses these countries.

    Then you may wish to set a "small goal": When will the Jiangsu economy surpass Canada and formally rank among the top ten in the world? We can do a simple calculation.

    From historical data, although in recent years, Jiangsu's economic growth has slowed down, and Canada's economic growth has rebounded, it is an indisputable fact that the former is always higher than the latter (see Figure 3).

     The provinces of the rich countries are not only in Guangdong, but what is the global GDP of Jiangsu?

    Considering that all provinces in China are lowering their GDP growth targets, it can be assumed that the average annual growth rate of GDP in Jiangsu and Canada will be 6% and 2% respectively in the next five years. By 2023, Jiangsu’s economic scale will officially surpass Canada. Enter the top ten in the world.

    Of course, in order to achieve this goal, it is necessary to find new kinetic energy to promote the sustainable development of Jiangsu's economy in practice. In my opinion, the uneven development of various regions in Jiangsu Province may be qualified for this role.

    Due to various historical reasons, there have been great differences in the development of the three regions of Sunan, Suzhong and Northern Jiangsu. According to the data of cities in 2018, the economic aggregates of the five southern cities (Suzhou, Nanjing, Wuxi, Changzhou, Zhenjiang) accounted for 57.2% of the province's GDP, while the eight cities of Suzhong and North Jiangsu only occupied 42.8%; from the perspective of cities, Suqian in northern Jiangsu is at the bottom of the province's economic rankings, and its GDP in 2018 is less than 15% in Suzhou; from the perspective of per capita GDP, in 2010, Sunan, Suzhong and Northern Jiangsu are respectively 16.12 million yuan, 115,400 yuan and 70,400 yuan. In addition, in the aspects of talent attraction, corporate vitality, industrial output value, science and education resources, etc., the southern part of Jiangsu is also clearly dominant.

    All of this reflects the unsynchronized and large gaps in the development of various regions in Jiangsu Province. But from another perspective, the objective existence of the regional development gap can be used as a new endowment to promote sustainable economic growth in Jiangsu Province. According to the general logic of development economics, if the cities in southern Jiangsu, where the economy is more developed, are the main engines of economic growth in the province, then with the slowdown of the growth rate of developed cities and the gradual saturation of the market, those relatives The backward regions are more likely to take advantage of the latecomer to enter the high-speed growth period; in other words, Suzhong and North Jiangsu, whose economic development is relatively lagging today, may be expected to become a new growth point for Jiangsu's sustained economic development.

    Someone once summed up such a paragraph: "Xuzhou people can't stand the people of Suining, Yancheng people can't afford to shoot the Yang people, Sunan people can't look down on the Subei people, and the urban people can't look down on the rural people." If in the near future, Subei and Su Zhongzhen The ushered in a new rapid development period, this so-called "scorn chain" may have to be rewritten.

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    Editor in charge: Jiang Pingbo

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