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    Yi Xianrong: Fine-tuning of real estate policy in 2019 is starting

    2019-01-30 10:40:16

    Financial sector websiteYi Xianrong

    Author: Qingdao University School of Economics professor, former Academy of Social Sciences Institute of Finance, financial development director Yixianrong  

    At present, the two sessions of various provinces and cities are held in full swing. However, this year, the two provinces and cities in the country will have a very different phenomenon from previous years, that is, the reports of the two provinces and cities will explain how the real estate market policy will develop this year. The content of its statement is basically the same. That is to say, the market positioning of “the house is used for living, not for speculation”, to ensure the sustainable and stable development of the real estate market with stable prices, stable prices and stable expectations, that is, the “three stables” are the mainstay.

    For example, the real estate policies of Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou this year are also based on stability, and require “households and no speculation”. Beijing will improve the housing market system and housing security system this year, maintain a stable and healthy development of the real estate market, and adhere to the market positioning of “the house is used for living, not for speculation”; Shanghai will improve the normal long-term mechanism for real estate market regulation and control. Continue to stabilize the price, stabilize the price, and stabilize the expectations.

    Guangzhou also adheres to the market positioning of “households and no speculation” and has established a sound housing market system and housing security system. The Shenzhen Municipal Government has clearly pointed out that it is necessary to strictly control housing prices and rents in the rental market to rise too fast, and to build a long-term and healthy real estate market development mechanism with more economic means.

    Judging from the prescriptions of the 2019 real estate market regulation policies issued by these first-tier cities, the premise of each city's real estate policy is two hats (that is, insisting on “only live without speculation” and “three stables”). This is the central regulation. The cities can only say in the original words, so if there is any problem in the real estate market this year, they do not need to bear any responsibility, because their policies are under the big hat of the central government. Otherwise, the localities The real estate policy is not based on the original words. Once the market changes, the real estate market has any problems, and the local government has no choice but to take it.

    However, it also revealed a strong message that the fine-tuning of domestic real estate policy in 2019 is already starting. This year's real estate policy is based on the principle of “only live without speculation” and “three stables”. The core of local government real estate policy is that local governments can “make policy for the city” or one city and one policy according to the situation of their own cities. . Since local governments have the power to determine local real estate regulation and control policies, local governments must find any justification for any real estate policy. And these real estate policies must be dominated by real estate driving economic growth. To achieve this goal, we must do everything possible to use house prices as an engine, as otherwise, housing investors will not enter the market. Only the housing prices are rising, especially the rapid rise, investors will definitely enter the market. As for not allowing house prices to rise too fast, local governments must be controlled by statistical means rather than actual market transactions. Therefore, as far as the current situation is concerned, the local government will test the attitude of the central government in various ways to test the market and the intention of housing investors, and slowly open the gap in the fine-tuning of the real estate market policy. Therefore, the local government's real estate policy issued by the two local governments is the beginning of this year's fine-tuning of real estate policies.

    Coupled with the focus of the stable economy of local governments in 2019, it has turned to the development of regional economy. For example, the establishment of the Bay Area, the construction of the free trade zone, and the construction of the same city are basically involved in the Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The primary task of these regional economic cooperation and development is the construction of urban infrastructure. The launch of urban infrastructure, with these concepts, is definitely the driving force behind the growth of these cities and regional real estate markets. Not only will it lead to rapid expansion of cities in these regions, but it will also raise prices in these areas. Since the second half of 2018, the efforts of local governments to control the sale of high-priced real estates have become smaller. Many high-priced real estates have entered the market intensively, which is a clear signal to the market.

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