Jiang Chao: The real economy needs or has begun to bottom out

1comment 2019-04-12 13:58:33 source:Financial sector website Author:Jiang Chao The second beauty energy comes!


From the recent observation of high-frequency data: on the one hand,industryProduction rebounded unsteadily. In March, power generation consumption and crude steel output growth both rebounded. The operating rates of major industries generally rose. However, since April, the growth rate of power generation coal consumption has turned negative, and the operating rate has also turned into a rising and falling; On the other hand, demand has begun to bottom out. Since April, although the growth rate of real estate sales is still different, but the upward trend continues, the growth rate of passenger car approvals has also changed from ups and downs to simultaneous upwards.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs recently stated that the Sino-US economic and trade consultations have made new substantive progress. Demand began to bottom out, and external pressures eased, which not only helped the economy stabilize in the second half of the year, but also created favorable conditions for promoting reform. Recent reform measures are accelerating, and the fiscal and taxation system, the household registration system, and the reform of the state-owned enterprise sector have all steadily advanced. Reform not only helps to optimize the economic structure, enhance economic kinetic energy, but also is the key driving force for promoting high-quality economic development!

Demand: Weak improvement in downstream real estate and passenger vehicles. MidstreamSteelCement is strong and chemical industry is weak. UpstreamcoalWeak and diversified. Traffic differentiation.

Price: Domestic producer prices rose and fell last week, and international oil prices rebounded.

Inventory: Downstream real estate replenishment, passenger car to go. In the middle reaches of the steel, cement detoxification, chemical replenishment. Upstream coal replenishment and color differentiation.

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Downstream industry:

Real estate: In the first ten days of April, the growth rate of 38-city real estate sales rebounded, and land transactions continued to slow down. In the first ten days of April, the growth rate of 38-city real estate sales continued to rise to 33%. On the one hand, the impact of the low base in the same period last year still exists. On the other hand, the relaxation of some urban settlement policies will also push up the demand for housing in the short term. The differentiation of various line-level cities is still obvious. The sales growth rate of first- and second-tier cities fluctuated at a high level, slightly slowing down, pushing up the inventory of commercial housing. Last week, the sales ratio of commodity housing in the top ten cities rebounded to 41.4 weeks. Although the third- and fourth-tier cities improved, The decline is still more than 20%. Last week, the land transaction area of ​​Baicheng fell and the decline widened, while the land premium rate fell slightly, but it was still at a high level.

Passenger cars: The growth rate of passenger car sales in March fell, and the growth rate of zero in the first week of April improved. In March, the passenger car sales growth rate of the Federation was -12.1%, which continued to expand compared with the growth rate in January-February, and is still bottoming out. In the first week of April, the growth rate of passenger car wholesale and retail sales in the Federation was rebounded from March. The retail growth rate jumped to 8% under the high base, and the wholesale decline narrowed to 6%. In March, dealer inventory has improved, superimposed in the beginning of April, the passenger car zero growth rate rebounded, or that passenger car sales growth has gradually bottomed out, and the improvement of the car market will also help the consumption growth rate stabilize.

Midstream industry:

Steel: Last week, steel prices rose, social libraries went, and work started. The crude steel output rose in mid-March. Last week, steel price threads and hot plates continued to rise, andRaw materialPrices have fallen back, causing the gross profit of tons of steel to rebound. In the middle of March, the growth rate of crude steel output of key steel enterprises was 7.6%, which was significantly higher than that in January and February. The operating rate of blast furnaces last week also rose sharply to 67.7%, which was higher than the same period of last year, which means that environmental protection is stricter on production. The short-term suppression of the end has been gradually eliminated. Since March, steel stocks and social stocks have been de-converted, pointing to steady growth in demand.

Cement: The average national cement price continued to rise last week, and the storage ratio fell again. Last week, the national average cement price continued to rise, and the growth rate of the chain rose to 0.9%, while the storage ratio continued to drop to 56.9%. At the end of March and the beginning of April, the supply and demand relationship in the domestic cement market continued to improve, the southern region remained relatively stable, the northern region continued to recover, and cement prices continued to rise. In terms of regions, cement prices in North China, East China, Central South and Southwest China are now on the rise, and prices in the Northwest are stable.

Chemical: last weekPTAThe price of the industrial chain has been flat and the polyester POY stocks have been replenished. Last week, the price of PTA industrial chain products fell flat. The price of PTA in the upstream and PET PO in the downstream decreased slightly, while the price of polyester chips fell flat. The PTA equipment maintenance is increasing, which makes the PTA factory operating rate significantly lower. However, due to the weak downstream demand, the PTA industry chain product prices have mostly declined. Last week, the polyester POY inventory days also rose to 10.5 days. The downstream of the polyester plant and the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load rates are still high.

Machinery: The sales growth rate of excavators dropped significantly in March, mainly due to the increase in the base of the same period last year. March is the peak season for traditional excavator sales, usually the highest point of annual sales. However, due to the impact of the high base in the same period last year, the sales growth rate of excavators in March was 15.7%, which was significantly lower than that in January and February. The sales growth of large and medium-sized excavators declined across the board, with growth rates of 7% and 19% respectively. 14%. From a structural point of view, the growth rate of medium and small digging sales is obviously better than that of large digging, which means that the downstream economy is better than the upstream.

Electricity: In the first half of April, the growth rate of coal consumption by the six major groups turned negative, and the downward pressure on production reappeared. In the first half of April, the year-on-year growth rate of coal consumption by the six major groups turned down to -1% from March, while the growth rate of the chain also turned negative to -3.1%, only at a medium level in the same period of the previous year. On the one hand, the base figure was relatively high in the same period last year, which suppressed the year-on-year growth rate in April. On the other hand, the start-up of major industries such as steel and chemical industries changed from general to ups and downs, which means that industrial production rebounded in March. It is difficult to sustain, and it is still facing downward pressure in April.

Upstream industry and delivery:

Coal: Coal prices in Qinhuangdao Port fell last week, and coal stocks in power plants were slightly replenished. Coal prices in Qinhuangdao Port fell slightly last week. In the first half of April, the growth rate of coal consumption by the six major groups was turned from negative to negative in March, driving the coal inventory of the power plant to be replaced. Last week, the coal inventory days of the power plant was 23.4 days, and the recovery was obvious and reached a new high in the same period in 14 years. Last week, the average coal inventory of Qinhuangdao Port increased simultaneously.

Colored: Last week LMEcopperPrice rise,aluminumThe price dropped, copper stocks rose, and aluminum stocks fell. Base metal prices rose and fell last week. Minmetals' Australian subsidiary's copper mine was forced to suspend production, and its copper production accounted for about 2% of global production. Peruvian indigenous community organizations refused to negotiate with the government on copper mine closure until the organization's lawyers were released, last week's copper price The average value rebounds. Rusal's aluminum smelter in Siberia officially started new capacity, and the average aluminum price fell last week.

Commodities: last weekCrude oil pricesPick up, CRB index goes up,Dollar indexPick up. Last week, the average price of crude oil rebounded. In March, OPEC crude oil production fell year-on-year. The Russian energy minister said that it would abide by OPEC+'s production reduction agreement, and the contradiction between Iran and the United States is increasing. Last week, the CRB index averaged upward. In March, the US ISM manufacturing PMI index rebounded, and the number of newly added jobs also increased. The uncertainty of Brexit is still rising. The US dollar index rebounded last week.

Transportation: Last week, BDI rose, CCFI dropped, and the highway logistics freight rate index fell slightly. Last week, the BDI index rebounded, while the CCFI index fell, and the bulk performance outperformed the consolidation. The average rent of Capesize vessels increased by 2.8%, the average rent of Panamax vessels increased by 4.7%, and the average rent of Super Handysize vessels decreased by 5.9%. Last week, the highway logistics freight index dropped slightly.

Keyword reading:Real economy industry demand

Editor in charge: Bao Fang
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