Gloryspecial edition

To teach people to fish, it is better to teach people to fish, the financial sector glory to remember the special edition, to search for ace analysts, and find the true logic of investment.

The first mistake of the macro was the mistake of Guo Lei
Dr. Guo Lei
Chief Macro Analyst of GF Securities

12 years ago, he accidentally hit the macro research. After 12 years, he reached the top of the industry crown. He is Guo Lei, who is called "Dian Wangye" in the circle.

In 2015, Guo Lei accurately predicted that the big ones would bottom out. In 2016, he first proposed an economic recovery. In 2017, he clearly shouted the recovery of the production cycle and the upgrading of the third and fourth line consumption. Last year, Guo Lei won the first prize of many new awards such as the new wealth. After the glory, Guo Lei is still humble. He said that he should strive to be an independent, fresh and sincere macro study. His ideal is to let the macro analysis of the rivers and lakes reproduce the craftsman spirit.

At the beginning of 2018, Guo Lei proposed that nominal GDP gradually slowed down in resilience; in 2018, Sino-US trade black swan appeared, and Guo Lei proposed that the economy would experience "two rounds of decline." These judgments are now largely self-evident. At the same time, he is also a person who has enough awe of the market. He admits that the prediction is a right or wrong thing. He ridiculously said that judging the future is like shooting birds in the sky at super long distances. Sometimes all kinds of movements are very good. Standards, but still difficult to match the unfathomable complexity of the objective world.

In this interview, you will see a rigorous and unspoken logic about talking about economic issues; talking about ideals and life, but also a sudden change in style, humorous, whispering, and a combination of macro analysts and paragraphs.

Investment - insights

financial:The word "over the winter" has become a hot word overnight. The Chinese economy is wintering, the capital market is wintering, and private enterprises are wintering... How do you see the current Chinese macro economy, how to "winter"? "where is spring?

Guo Lei:Spring, summer, autumn and winter are a relatively vivid statement, but economic growth does have the same four seasons. From the current cycle stage, Europe, Japan, and some emerging economies, their economies have passed the peak of this round of economic boom, and have fallen back for some time; the United States, which has the relatively strong economic performance, now has signs of slowing down. If this round of adjustment of the US financial market is followed by household consumption, the US economy will be slower, and China’s external demand will face some pressure. At the same time, real estate is currently considered to be a boom in domestic demand. In the first three quarters of this year, real estate starts to perform strongly, with more than 20% in the third quarter, and it is difficult to accelerate afterwards. We estimate that with the slowdown in exports and real estate, nominal growth will gradually decline in Q4 this year and the first half of next year. This will be reflected in corporate revenue and profitability.

In addition to the cyclical growth pressure, our company will face two other structural pressures. First, trade frictions, some export-oriented enterprises may face the rise of tariff costs; second, under the background of the dualization of the credit environment, SMEs will face the decline of the availability of financial resources to a certain extent. These are all challenges.

Therefore, the microeconomic main body has the consciousness of "overwintering", which is essentially more sensitive to these risk factors. In the winter, the strategic judgment ability, cost control ability, resource integration ability and market capture ability of excellent enterprises will be revealed. Instead, it will have a comparative advantage and the industry concentration will increase. In the recession, there will be a rebalancing from cost to interest rate, from profit margin to leverage. After the industry clears to a certain extent, the ROE is revised, the willingness to invest is restored, and the economy will have a positive cycle toward recovery, then spring will arrive. The so-called cycle itself is the truth.

One more thing to be reminded is that the capital market tends to lead the physical process by half a position. The so-called Yiye Zhiqiu, Yiye Zhichun, the capital market is the first leaf. We estimate that this round of economic short-term adjustment will be almost until the middle of next year, and the capital market understands that the fundamentals may bottom out sooner.

financial:In addition to the financial industry, real estate and automobiles are two very important industries. From the perspective of local surveys, it seems that the automobile market and the housing market are both established facts. What do you think?

Guo Lei:This year, the car really pulled down the economy at both ends of industry and retail. The low boom of the auto industry this year is a superposition of a series of reasons, which have the impact of the macroeconomic environment. After all, the automobile has a certain early cycle characteristics; there are also the industry's own cycle factors, the fallback power after the previous policy pulse subsided, and the price in the context of trade friction. Some of the effects expected. Real estate is still not in the winter, the new construction is still relatively high, but the price has been loosened in the third quarter, sales have begun to fall, sales will affect the new construction and investment through sales returns, the follow-up is expected to be pressure on the entire real estate system Increase. Overall, we believe that the car's economic downturn may have reflected most of the year, after the Q4 in the past, the car's year-on-year decline will be narrowed; but the impact of real estate on the downstream has just begun, especially in the first half of next year may continue to ferment.

financial:The depreciation of the renminbi has always been the focus of the issue, and whether there will be more "breaking 7" arguments. In the exchange rate framework of your macro analysis, is it reasonable to devalue the RMB to 7? Or based on your judgment on the policy, will the country allow the RMB exchange rate to break 7?

Guo Lei:This issue needs to be viewed in two ways. From the perspective of purchasing power parity, I think the renminbi may not be overvalued. The so-called purchasing power parity is actually the currency price of a basket of goods. For example, when we go abroad, we can see the prices of various products. Electronic products may be cheaper than domestic ones; food and daily necessities are more expensive than in China. How about adding up? This summed up purchasing power comparison is purchasing power parity. In the past two years, I have not seen the latest comparatively authoritative calculation of purchasing power parity, but a few years ago it was measured by international authorities. The renminbi is also considered to require a large appreciation; and experience our experience of internal and external prices. Look, the purchasing power of the renminbi should be no overestimation, and the renminbi has no basis for long-term depreciation.

On the other hand, the exchange rate is also a mapping of the relative fundamentals of the economy. The short-term fluctuations of the exchange rate are empirically related to two factors. One is the difference between the internal and external growth rates of economic growth; the other is the internal and external spreads. These two factors are not too favorable for the RMB exchange rate in 2018-2019, and the exchange rate performance may be weak overall.

However, as long as the annual fluctuation of the RMB is within a certain range, for example, looking at the characteristics of the past few years, the year is less than 7%, and the problem is not big. For example, in 2015-2016, it is a two-year depreciation; 2017 is an annual appreciation; 2018 is a depreciation. Although there is a certain trend of market-oriented pricing, the overall situation is cyclical, related to economic performance and interest rate cycle.

financial:There are many disputes about the "national advancement and retreat" in the current capital market. How do you view this phenomenon?

Guo Lei:Two reasons for it. First of all, in the past two years, our economic policies such as de-capacity, environmental protection, and financial de-leveraging, one of its by-products is to lead to more concentrated policy resources, which is objectively beneficial to upstream enterprises, enterprises above designated size, and high credit ratings. In the process of enterprise, state-owned enterprises will naturally benefit more than private enterprises. On the other hand, some financial institutions do not understand the policy and may be more inclined to lend money to state-owned enterprises. Because the latter has implicit endorsement of government credit, it is relatively safer, which also brings such a phenomenon to a certain extent. Internal and objective existence. Of course, there is a signal that deserves attention recently. The policy layer has repeatedly mentioned that it is considering treating the state-owned economy with the principle of "competitive neutrality". The OECD has comprehensively explained the principle of "competitive neutrality" and pointed out that it has eight characteristics, which are specific to the fields of cost, supervision, subsidies, taxation, debt, procurement, etc. It is a relatively clear and easy to understand framework. If it later becomes a key idea of ​​our state-owned enterprise reform, there should still be some points of view.

financial:US bond yields have long been considered an anchor for global risk-free yields. Today, US bond yields are on the rise and global stock markets are under pressure. What do you think of current policy choices? Please judge the possible monetary and fiscal policies of China in the future?

Guo Lei:US bond yields are still in the midst of a rising cycle. Moreover, in this round of US interest rate hikes, we also see the characteristics of US bond yields. It may be stronger before the interest rate hike. After the interest rate hike, it may be adjusted for a period of time. The US interest rate hike is not over yet. We estimate that there will be two or three interest rate hikes next year after raising interest rates in December this year. The US bond yield center is at least not a top now, and we estimate that the average value next year will be higher than it is now.

US debt is an anchor. In a simple sense, the yield of US bonds is high, which means that the opportunity cost of buying other assets is higher, the relative prices of other assets will be lower, and the valuation will be more pressure. Therefore, the rise of US debt is a pressure on global risk assets.

There is still a bit of constraint on monetary policy in other regions of the world. Take China as an example. To maintain the internal and external balance of the economy, our government bond yields still need to have a certain spread with the US debt. Now different from 10 years ago, the current Chinese economy, the degree of marketization of interest rates and exchange rates are much higher, and the internal and external equilibrium of the economy is a realistic logic.

The fiscal policy space will be slightly larger. First, tax cuts, tax cuts have been implemented. We estimate that there will be corporate tax cuts during the year; there will be a modest expansion of fiscal expenditures and restoration of infrastructure. It is expected that the fourth quarter will be built. going up. One area that I am more optimistic about in the future is rural infrastructure. It is a policy policy to narrow the duality gap between county and rural areas through rural revitalization strategy. And our fiscal policy and industrial policy can promote the technological transformation investment of industrial enterprises.


financial:How many years have you been doing macro research?

Guo Lei:I graduated from 2006 for almost 12 years; entering the securities market is probably from 2010 to now, about 8 years.

financial:Why did you choose to do macro research?

Guo Lei:Based on the love of macro research. Actually, it’s not so touching.At the beginning, I wanted to be a non-banking researcher. As a result, the first research institute I went to said that you are a doctor. You should do macro. I said that if you find a macro person, can I turn it to non-bank?? They said absolutely no problem. then..... So life is sometimes not a framework of determinism, it is full of contingency.

financial:What do you think is the most important thing to do in macro research?

Guo Lei:I think that we must first have certain academic and professional training, and the macro is particularly afraid of the civil sciences. Secondly, we should have a persistent and intrinsic interest in the macro research. If we do macro, we will definitely not do non-silver.Then, there must be a certain amount of time in the financial market. There have been countless joys and small experiences in judging success, and there have been countless mistakes in judging mistakes, slowly forming a set of methods and systems.

financial:What is your definition of macro research?

Guo Lei:I can only define macro research in the financial market. In fact, there are three types of roles that will study macroeconomics, one is universities and research institutes; the other is policy institutions; the other is financial institutions.

The macroscopic research in the financial market is to analyze and analyze macro-microeconomic data with the goal of assisting investment decision-making, and to judge the current economic stage, future evolution trend, and the impact of economic characteristics on large-scale assets. Because it is aimed at assisting investment decisions, sometimes our core considerations are not what it should be (what the world should look like), but the reality (what the world would look like).

financial:Do macro research, how do you expand your thinking?

Guo Lei:Everyone has their own way of thinking. One way to broaden oneself is to believe that others are equally good and listen more. These two years are too busy to do so. Before 2016, I was almost familiar with every research in each macro strategy of the market. I will go to see everyone else.

financial:What is your research maxim?

Guo Lei:Do unfamiliar, not slogan research.

financial:What is the most fulfilling of your work experience?

Guo Lei:I think the most important thing is that in 2016, I was alone in the new wealth. In 2017, I got the first place in the three awards with a start-up team. Each of them is my face to the resume, one by one against the wind research report, everyone forms a style of research-type combination, work together, speak with strength, I think this process is still quite burning.

financial:What are the biggest difficulties in your career and how to solve them?

Guo Lei:In 2016, I was still experiencing some twists and turns in my personal career. Solve..... The solution is to meditate three times: I am gold, I will shine.

financial:What career do you want after ten years?

Guo Lei:Forecasts of more than a decade are quite difficult, including many of us who could have imagined what the world would look like in 10 years, and it’s not particularly reliable to look at it later. From the experience of foreign countries, the macro-strategy needs experience accumulation, there is still a certain moat; but in the end, the industry ecology and technical conditions are constantly changing, it is difficult to say how long our professional experience can last, maybe the AI ​​will do macro analysis in the future. I am a person who only knows the border town and does not understand programming.. In short, prudent and hard work every day, the future is nothing more than a continuous sense.

financial:How do you think the analyst industry will develop in the future?

Guo Lei:This industry is always getting more mature. No matter how the industry rules change, I believe that the basic principles of "research and creation of value" should not change, and will become more and more an industry standard.


financial:What is your favorite book or movie?

Guo Lei:I have a lot of reading, and many fields are enthusiasts. It's hard to say which one or which. For example, when I was young, I liked the Dream of Red Mansions. There are hundreds of books in Hong Xue.

financial:What is your biggest hobby?

Guo Lei:These years are watching movies. Because private time is very small, watching movies is usually on the plane, it is really the most important leisure time. Later I don’t know who invented the wifi on the plane.Sometimes I still can't help but work. Many of us in this line should have similar experience: after a flight, I found wifi, I don’t know what to expect..

financial:What is your belief in life?

Guo Lei:Do more things and stick to the clouds and see the moon.

financial:What is your dream when you are 17?

Guo Lei:At the age of 17, I was already in the second year of college. My dreams are the same as those of other college students. I hope that I can skip classes, hang out, and fall in love. Life is more complete.. However, I also planned to read the Ph.D. at the time, prefer the campus, and always hope to stay on campus for a long time.

financial:What is the current ideal?

Guo Lei:When people reach middle age, they have no ideals. The tedious work life every day is the ideal itself. If you must say yes, sometimes we will skip the secular cost-effective perspective to stick to something, I think these pieces are ideal. I have a friend who once said a paragraph. I think it is very good: ideals don't have to be realized. It exists to remind you what kind of person you used to be, what kind of person you can be, and your life in the world is not All.

financial:What is the impact of doing macro research on your values?

Guo Lei:Macro research is actually an extension of economic thinking, and economics, it is not the same as pure science liberal arts thinking, my understanding is essentially a secular instrumental rationality. Whether it is a country, to achieve prosperity and prosperity; or an ordinary person, to achieve a good moon, it has an optimal path, that is, the way to maximize the cost of income, economics is essentially the optimal solution under the constraints of research. When we come out of this profession, sometimes it is more rational to look at some social problems, which is the result of long-term thinking habits.

financial:How many hours does your sleep usually take?

Guo Lei:I used to have a rough calculation with my peers. We have to work more than 4,000 hours a year. It should be said that there should be more rest, but because it is too busy, it will have its own time after 11 o'clock in the night, instead of being willing to sleep. So for sleep, it’s really demand expansion + supply contraction. This logic is the same as commodities, so we are not even depreciated, we are burning.

financial:What is your most regrettable?

Guo Lei:The most regrettable thing is that I wrote well, but failed to become a talk show actor..

financial:What is your most grateful?

Guo Lei:In the process of growing up, I still met people who can recognize my value and give me the platform and opportunities. They will always be my Bole.

financial:What kind of person do you most want to be?

Guo Lei:China is a fast-changing economy. China is an excellent example for any macroeconomic and institutional evolutionary game. I faintly feel that many of our economists have a wrong perspective. It is equivalent to standing in the air and looking down. This is reasonable. It is unreasonable. It is efficient. It is inefficient. It seems to ignore the economy. The validity of the law and the endogenous nature of the economic phenomenon. In the future, I want to find an opportunity to write down my idea. The ancients did not say that the three immortal, the word is one of them. As a Ph.D. in economics and an observer of the Chinese economy for many years, I still want to be a person who speaks. Of course, I will cherish the feathers and make sure that my book is worth writing on the bookshelf.

financial:What do you want to do most if you have time?

Guo Lei:A holiday, a beach, a beer, a PAD.

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