To teach people to fish, it is better to teach people to fish, the financial sector glory to remember the special edition, to search for ace analysts, and to find the true logic of investment.
Real ace analysts can not only study and understand the essence of the market; they can also make a blockbuster and stand out in the industry. On the way to the thorns, you can stand the loneliness and persevere; go over the hills and see the bustling, not forgetting the heart. People in the rivers and lakes, glory to add, retreat, rivers and lakes are also full of legends.
Once an astrophysicist, he “crossed the border” in the 2008 financial crisis and explored the ever-changing financial world.
Gorgeously turned 11 years, he took the lead in researching China's balance sheet, the earliest warning of China's derivatives. After Trump won the election in 2016, he was keenly aware of the intensification of American contradictions, first of all proposing "the disaster."
Behind the view that has been repeatedly verified by the market, Wang Han has an accurate grasp of model construction and a unique understanding of finance, history and philosophy.
Standing at the crossroads of 2019, where is the game between China and the United States? Where is the most dangerous problem in the global economy? How big is the impact of the Chinese population crisis? What is the analyst's daily ecology after the new wealth aura is removed? What kind of changes will the investment circle in the next decade undergo? Wang Han gives you the answer.
financial:The question that everyone is most concerned about right now is no more than Sino-US trade friction. What do you think? Is there any possibility of talking about the collapse?
Wang Han:I think the probability of the two sides talking about the collapse is very low now, because the United States itself is also facing some internal contradictions. Therefore, from the entire cabinet of Trump, it is certainly not going to endure the situation of collapse. Some time ago, Wall Street has already voted in the market, and China is unlikely to accept the result of the collapse. Therefore, I feel that the two sides may reach a relatively relatively peaceful consensus. The real problem is that after March, there are mainly two: the first is the repetition of the Trumppu government itself, and the second is the entire elite of the United States. Classes, especially at the level of Congress, will gradually increase interference with all aspects of China. So even if such an agreement is reached, I think the uncertainty will be relatively large.
So at the trade level, the issue that the US is more concerned about now is mainly intellectual property. But I understand that what it calls the purpose of trying to achieve at the intellectual property level may not be the same as what he said to the United States. In terms of external arguments, he wants to guarantee intellectual property rights and cannot trade the market for technology. But if we look at the friction between the United States and Japan in the 1980s, the United States at that time restricted the export of Japanese products, causing Japanese companies to set up their core departments to the United States. In fact, they intercepted a large amount of technology from Japan. So from this point of view, now, many of our technologies, including Huawei, are leading the world. It is possible that his idea is not to say that we can’t plagiarize his things, but how he can get high-tech companies for us. Control. For example, in the event of ZTE, his last request was that he sent a person. This person is basically a supreme emperor, and his power is almost unlimited. I think from this point of view, this kind of game between China and the United States, the things proposed by the US on the bright side are not the same as what they actually want.
financial:The US economy is weak, and US stocks are now highly valued. If the US stock market adjustment is fierce, what impact will it have on the global market and China's economy?
Wang Han:It will hit the developed economies very much. From 2014 onwards, if we go to see it, the US dollar and US stocks are a process of rising in the same direction. That is to say, at that stage, investors all over the world felt that the US stock market was very good, so everyone went to buy US stocks, especially in Europe with low interest rates. Therefore, if the US stocks fall, the Europeans will have huge losses.
For emerging markets, in the past few years, the US stock market bull market is actually a process in which funds are drawn out. If US stocks fall, there will be emotional panic in the early stage, but the pressure of pumping water in emerging markets will be weakened. In the process, I think the overall emerging market is OK, but there will be internal differentiation. This year's risk is relatively large. In addition to last year's Argentina and Turkey, there will be some economies like South Africa, like Eastern Europe, because Their overall external debt ratio is relatively high, so if global liquidity panics, they will be shocked.
But for China, I think this shock is short, medium and long-term uncertain. The short-term meaning is that there will be a combination of emotions. The logic of the middle is that as the US economy is weak, the probability that he is willing to temporarily reach a trade ceasefire is increasing. But the long-term uncertainty is that the entire market problem in the United States has accumulated for a long time, so it is very likely that his choice will eventually be passed on to the internal contradictions as he did after 1929. In this case, the risk of geopolitical friction will rise. .
financial:At present, the global economy is synchronizing downwards. What stage and stage do you think the global economy is currently in?
Wang Han:From the entire global cycle, if we take a little longer, it will now be more like before 1929. In fact, the entire global economic growth after World War II, on the one hand, its demand comes from the destruction of many things in the whole world in World War II, so the demand is the need for global reconstruction. On the other hand, the two major groups of the Cold War formed after World War II made the global market fragmented. The whole process of globalization is the unification of the market, the improvement of efficiency, and the flow of resources has become more frequent. However, as globalization reaches a point, the developed economies are beginning to be dissatisfied with the status quo of globalization. In fact, this process of global integration of the entire market has begun to encounter bottlenecks. From this perspective, many of the current problems are similar to those between 1929 and 1939, because at that time it was also the process of global market integration reaching the bottleneck.
From the perspective of China's own economic cycle, I feel more like the end of a big industrial cycle and the beginning of a cycle of nurturing new industries. This process will be somewhat similar to the period from 1998 to 2002. In that round, we have overcapacity in the textile industry, which is dominated by light industry and state-owned enterprises. The current round is the industry in these infrastructures and real estate-related chains. Its downstream demand has gradually entered a medium-term bottleneck, many with infrastructure real estate. Investment-related companies need to begin to gradually re-think the process of investing in that direction. On the other hand, the technology-based enterprises themselves are on the rise. If we can get through the financing channels and enable them to quickly innovate and invent industrialization, it is a new cycle, so I think it is a new and old cycle. Alternate period.
The difference between us and other developed economies is that although we have a large overall economy, they are not high in terms of per capita level. That is to say, in developed economies, what it may need is the leading geese, which needs independent innovation. Many of our industries only need to learn. As long as our level is close to the level of the developed economy, it will bring huge growth of. You can think of it as the end of a big Jugla cycle and the start of a new cycle. From a global point of view, I think it is a big renewed thinking that everyone brings back after the end of the global globalization cycle.
financial:In response to the upward movement of the US dollar and the rise in the yield of US bonds, what kind of policy will China respond to?
Wang Han:Regarding the upward trend of the US dollar, if we look at the situation after 2016, the PBC’s exchange rate policy will lead to a directional change, usually with a certain lag period on the big turning point of the US dollar, because the PBOC needs to observe the establishment of the US dollar trend. This trend can be seen from the pricing of the middle price in recent years. For now, let's first assume that the dollar is really up - this is a huge assumption. I think China will first look at its trend in a wait-and-see attitude. If this trend is established, the PBOC will face a difficult situation. The state, how to balance the pressure of domestic wide credit and overseas exchange rate rise, this is a problem. But in my own judgment, I think the probability of the dollar going down this year will be much greater than the probability of rising. The reason is that in the past two years, it was actually a European fund to buy US stocks. Global funds also went to buy such a stage of US stocks. However, if there is a large turmoil in US stocks this year, the money going to the US in theory will run out, which will bring down the dollar. In this case, I think the pressure on the renminbi will ease this year.
The yield of US debt is rising. I think the pressure may not be so great. The reason is that the first one is that the upward trend of the yield of this round of US debt since last year is largely because the Fed is selling the US debt in his hands. One problem brought by this is that if the Fed’s debt-for-debt causes the US bond yield to rise, then if the global investor’s yield rises, will global investors be willing to rush in to buy US debt as a “receiving man”. It is uncertain. The second is that although the yield of US Treasury bonds has risen in the past two years, the yield in Europe is actually low. Therefore, after the combination of the two, external liquidity is still loose, and the pressure on interest rates is Our impact will not be great.
financial:How long will this winter cycle of the economic cycle be? Will 2019 be the most difficult year?
Wang Han:I think it is possible that 2018 is the most difficult year in this cycle. Because in 2018 we are faced with a decline in economic demand and superimposed financial supervision. From now on, the direction of the entire financial supervision has not changed, but as in last year, because of some overly strict regulatory policies, some of them are normal. The business of the company has been affected. I think this process should be a thing of the past. On the other hand, some of the industries that we have just mentioned are infrastructure industries with downstream demand. The problem of overcapacity is not solved. The exit of these enterprises may not change because of the change of policies, so the future industry The differentiation between the industry and the enterprise will become very obvious.
From our own estimation, the downward trend of GDP growth should be maintained until the middle of 2020. We can discuss this issue in this way. In 2009, we put 4 trillion yuan, which is equivalent to 13% of GDP, and invested in the stimulus policy. So after the 2009 and 2010 two-year stimulus policies, the effect from 2011 From 2014 to 2014, we spent four years to digest the base of this part. In this round of infrastructure and real estate, we can see from the data of PPP and shed change monetization that in 2016 and 2017, the government probably invested 7 trillion yuan, which is about 9% of GDP. Assume that the speed of the above round of digestive base is basically three years, that is, 2018, 2019, 2020.
financial:Recently, everyone is talking about the problem of a sharp drop in the birth population, and even the population crisis. What do you think?
Wang Han:I think that the population is indeed a very important factor in the long-term cycle. The population policy must have an adjustment. It is now being adjusted, but the adjustment of the population policy is difficult to affect the economy of the next five years. In the short term, the most important thing is not the population, but the The quality of the population. At this point in time, China’s most valuable asset is that after the reform and opening up, more than 100 million college students have been trained. These people can work in high value-added jobs and can work in low value-added jobs if you can’t If you provide him with enough good positions, the resources of these talents will be wasted. If we include the equity market, including encouraging technological innovation, let them engage in some high value-added industries, which is of great benefit to economic growth.
financial:What do you think is the boost to the economy by large-scale tax cuts and fee reductions?
Wang Han:First of all, we have to clarify one thing. Whether the tax reduction is the tax reduction rate or the total tax reduction. If China’s current tax pressure is very high, then there will be a tax reduction rate, and at the same time, the total tax revenue will rise, that is, the economics Curve effect. In fact, we saw this effect in the policy of automobile purchase tax reduction and exemption in 2009. This is the first. Second, what the government wants to balance now is that it needs to use tax cuts to alleviate the company in the short term. Pressure, but in the long run, the pressure of social security brought about by China’s current population aging is very high. It is estimated by the existing data that if the proportion of social security is paid according to 27% of the legal compliance last year, by 2030 The annual financial investment in the entire social security system will exceed 8 trillion. That is to say, in the long run, the government's money is not enough, but in the short term, it is necessary to reduce taxes. This leads to the conclusion that the government will definitely do something that can expand the tax base while reducing the tax rate.
For example, the third pillar of our entire social security system, the personal income tax deferred pension account, I think such policies will also come out. The other is to include tax cuts for enterprises. If I drop a certain tax rate to make the overall demand of the company rise, such a policy will also exist. However, there is a large-scale and comprehensive tax cut, and the probability is still relatively small. I tend to think that the structural effect will be more obvious, and the total policy is unlikely.
financial:How many years have you been doing macro research?
Wang Han:For 11 years, I entered this line after the 2008 financial crisis.
financial:Why did you choose to do macro research?
Wang Han:My background is quite special. I used to learn astrophysics. What I did was the gravitational wave work done by the Nobel Prize winner in physics last year. Later, when I came back in 2008, there were two choices. One was to go to college as a teacher and the other to do finance. I feel that after doing so many years of physics, I found that the current state of the natural sciences limits how much you can do. For example, if a correct formula is discovered, then your work has no meaning, but the characteristic of the financial market is that it is always changing, you are playing against the market itself, and the market itself is advancing. So I think this process is more interesting, and because of some coincidences, there were some alumni in the relevant industry, and then I entered this line.
financial:What is your definition of macro research?
Wang Han:There are different groups of macro research, some are making policy recommendations, some are doing academic research, and we are targeting financial markets, so the main thing we look for in daily reports is: What is the most important factor affecting financial markets? Macro variables? In other words, I don't need to know the specific framework of a thing. How to make it more perfect? What I need to know is what kind of problem I should study now. From what angle can I give direction to the market? , including guidance from the financial system, and better advice. I think the macro research in the industry should be such a role.
financial:What do you think is the most important thing to do in macro research?
Wang Han:common sense. I have written an article before to compare the differences between natural science research and macro research. Natural science is relatively strict in every step of its derivation. Many systems like physics are partially stable, stable. The hallmark of the system is that you can find an unchanging law to describe the entire system. The financial system is more of a complex system. In a complex system, if you are trying to find an unchanging law and include all the factors, your price is that the current operation of the model may be related to the actual situation. It is compliant, but it does not match in the next second, because the larger the model is, the more unstable the model is, so the model and the actual situation deviate very quickly.
What we need to do is actually a trade-off. How do you blur the entire current form of economic finance into a few key variables? Using fewer variables means that you reduce the accuracy of the predictions for the entire system, but It will make your model more consistent with the real situation, so it is a trade-off process. In other words, I still go back to what I said just now. What we need to judge is what is the main contradiction. We should do the subtraction for all the secondary contradictions, but the industry, for example, in the academic world, he is doing what I am doing. The model is getting more and more accurate, and I put in variables that I didn't consider. However, in the actual application of such a model, its deviation from the real world will become faster and faster as the number of variables increases.
financial:How do you expand your thinking by doing macro research?
Wang Han:I tend to think that people who are macro, or those who do economics, need to look beyond the economy, especially for historical and political understanding. For example, we are going to study GDP, but in fact, everyone will study GDP. Many economists don't understand why we want to study GDP and what is GDP. In other words, when you compare the economic strength of two people, one person earns 50,000 yuan, and the other person earns 3,000 yuan, but there are three thousand people who have eight suites. The economic strength must be stronger, and you have more from the perspective of GDP. In other words, GDP is important because it is a channel to change the mutual strength of stock wealth, but it is not the only channel. So from this perspective, we return to the US-Japan issue that we talked about at the beginning. The United States and Japan are not a problem of GDP, but a large amount of intellectual property in Japan flows into the United States. This is the process in which the wealth of the stock is plundered. If you think about these issues from such relative common sense and historical perspectives, and look back at the macro, it is clear why we have to study a problem.
financial:What is your research maxim?
Wang Han:Under what circumstances, my model won't work?
Because the main contradiction in the financial market is changing, especially in the process of building my model, in fact, I am artificially ignoring many major contradictions, so the biggest risk to you is not that you predict the prediction of each variable in the model. Inaccurate, but because the market has changed, its main contradiction in the next second is no longer the variable in your last second model. To do the macro research of the market, the most important thing is the overall adjustment of the model, or the risk control, rather than constantly saying that a model is feasible.
financial:What do you think is the most fulfilling?
Wang Han:People who do research in the financial market will always have some sense of accomplishment that they bring because they are right or wrong. But my own sense of accomplishment comes more from the fact that I have a very good team, the people of our entire team, the ideas and research methods, and the construction of the framework. I think it is leading in this market. I often tell my leaders that many people in our team can do the chiefs in other research institutes, just because I am an external image, they seem to have less market visibility, but in terms of ability, I think that every It is very important that individuals have their own ability to settle down. So my greatest sense of accomplishment is from my team.
financial:What do you think your career will be ten years later?
Wang Han:First of all, I am a person who prefers to be a seller. Maybe because I am a researcher myself, I prefer to talk to others about my own ideas. I think I may be doing some research after ten years. But I hope that my work will be more systematic than ten years later. The systemization that I am talking about is that I often tell everyone in the team that there are things that people should do, and some things are machines. Do, but there are so many things in this market that people are doing what the machine should do. So maybe in the next decade, the combination of Fintech and macro research, including financial market research, will be a huge change. It is possible that what I do every day after ten years is still doing research, but the tools I use are not the same.
financial:How do you think the analyst industry will develop in the future?
Wang Han:I think a few points, the first change in the industry last year, also let everyone rethink what the analyst is doing every day. I think there will be a lot of good analysts, and the role of these analysts will be from simple stocks. Become an industry expert. Like our research team, the entire study of more than 150 analysts may be worth the research power of a provincial Academy of Social Sciences. But before, everyone may be too busy to push the ticket, too busy with the service, not sinking to think about the long-term understanding of the industry, of course, we may be better here. I think the good analysts in the future are still very scarce, and his pricing will be very high. However, there will be a large number of these services, the report of the analyst will slowly sink, there will be a process of survival of the fittest.
financial:If you recommend a book, or a movie, which one would you recommend?
Wang Han:The books that I like to read at different stages are not the same. Starting from my own professional studies, I suggest that you look at the Theory of Relativity. There are many people in the market who will confuse the phenomenon with the essential problem. In fact, "Relativity" is a worldview problem. It discusses the difference between the phenomenon you observe and the physical essence, especially the special theory of relativity. It is a Something that is philosophical. There are some popular science versions I think is still very good, I suggest you can take a look.
The first two years of the 2008 financial crisis, there is a movie called Margin call. I think that movie is still very real and tells everyone what the financial industry is doing. There are many criticisms of the financial industry, but I think it is A very real movie.
financial:What is your biggest hobby now?
Wang Han:I have a lot of hobbies. In the past two years, I mainly wrote calligraphy. I am willing to write a small book because I think people in this market are more impetuous. When writing, I am more focused on doing one thing, and my heart can calm down.
financial:What is your belief in life that you have always insisted on?
Wang Han:When no one can go up, I have to go up. Whether it is from the family situation or from the research situation, the sense of responsibility is still very important. Our entire team is like this. When no one can go up, Someone will stand up, I think everyone will be very happy.
financial:What is your dream at the age of 17?
Wang Han:At that time, I wanted to be a physicist. I finally realized it and wrote some things. I feel that the whole process of thinking is still very helpful to my current research. I think that physics is the closest thing to mathematics. Deductive discipline. So your logic must make you understand. When I suddenly remembered entering the business, one of my colleagues said a word: You do a research, you have to convince yourself of this thing, you can go to the customer, but you are too unbearable to fool yourself. I think that sentence fits well with my overall philosophy. That's why I think it's especially interesting to do this. I have to publish a lot of things I believe first, I will write it out. There will be a lot of things, I think it is not very reliable, sometimes there will be some wind in the market, I don't think it is too reliable, I will not participate in writing this thing.
financial:What is the current ideal?
Wang Han:I hope that more people in the market will come into contact with my research system, and this market will be able to further advance the understanding of the problem. This is an ideal for me. Just like five to ten years ago, when I first entered the business, few people would talk about China’s balance sheet. Five or six years ago, few people would talk about China’s derivatives, and I’m all from one. I talked about the aspect of framework. After the 2016 US presidential election, I wrote a global macro annual report. The United States is going to make a mistake, and Americans will definitely come to us. Because Trump came to power to explain that his contradictions have intensified, this process has been slowly verified by the market. On this basis, everyone has done a lot of good research, which is a very interesting thing in my opinion.
financial:What impact does macro research have on your worldview?
Wang Han:Many of the problems we talked about in our childhood political books are rather vague, because the world has been peaceful for 70 years, so in this process, we will think that a peaceful world is the norm, but when you go to see When there are some financial games between developed economies and emerging markets, you will find that the “war” of this financial and economic market has always existed. Rethinking the book of Western economics, why is there something he doesn't talk about, and some things he will write, including why the Washington Consensus seems to be a universal logic that everyone thinks is universal, but you will eventually find it inside. The rules of the hidden game are beneficial to one side. So I said that the understanding of these issues has become more profound after a macro study.
financial:What is the current level of busyness of analysts?
Wang Han:When I entered the business, my boss interviewed me with a sentence that could not do a hundred hours a week.
Seven days, 14 hours a day, if you want to rest for two days on weekends, then only 4 hours of sleep a day. I think so. The analyst team is a very self-disciplined team. There are various positive and negative descriptions of analysts in the market, but overall I have seen a large number of analysts who are very self-disciplined. One of our previous leaders said that the entire team of analysts relies on the self-discipline of talented people, so everyone is still very busy.
Instead, after some of the selections were cancelled, everyone began to think about where the value of my life is, and there is a big discussion inside. Finally, everyone came to the conclusion that this is a market with a large number of outstanding talents, so in the end I am very important to improve my professional ability. Maybe this professional ability is that we have narrowed it down to the buyer’s customers. Providing good investment advice, we can expand this part of our professional capabilities to a larger place in the future. In general, the analyst's busyness has not decreased, and the degree of brainburn has risen, because everyone will think about some problems that you didn't think about, imagine thousands, extremely hardworking and extremely intelligent people, thinking about the whole. The prospect of the industry, I think the energy emitted by the cockroaches is very strong.
financial:What are you most proud of?
Wang Han:I was born in a military family. My father was a man who had been on the front line and had been beaten and injured. The quality that he gave me is that I feel very proud of me. For example, when the same resources are being competed, I will change my mind more. Between the team and the individual, I may be more concerned about my team. I once skipped the slot and left the company from the previous company, not because the previous boss was not good to me, but because the boss might be on some things, making me seem to be not particularly fair to the members of my team. Perhaps the thing I am more proud of is that I have not tried too much for myself.
You just asked me ten years later, I often told them that when I retire, they have not retired, but I went to see you for a cup of tea, and everyone is willing to come out and gather with me. I think this is life. In fact, a lot of things, how many incomes, or rankings, you do not matter after the long-term scale, the important thing is the people around you.
financial:What are you most worried about right now?
Wang Han:I think it is the whole world. We are in a situation that has not appeared in 70 or 80 years. Globalization has encountered bottlenecks. In the last round, if we think about problems from Marxist economics, the world is in a kind of world. If the overall market demand is insufficient, if you follow the Marx theory, when the market demand is insufficient, you need to clear the individual. We know that in an economy, you have to clear out the company, but in a world, what you need to clear is an economy, even if it is the most peaceful one. It is Japan, and it has brought about a major impact on the Japanese economy for many years. At this time of the last century, the process of clearing out has become more intense. I think that the current global economies can work together to solve the problem of insufficient demand in the market economy, rather than relying on neighbors. This may be one of my biggest concerns.
financial:What is your most grateful?
Wang Han:Every step I touched someone who helped me at that right time. Just like when I was in the business, the person who recruited me was my alumnus. My alumni who took me in the house, when the balance between the analyst and the family needed to be done, my wife made a lot of sacrifices because she is also Doctor of Physics, she made many sacrifices for the family. When I entered HY Markets, the leaders and colleagues also took the lead from me, from a macro analyst to a macro analyst in the financial market, including the construction of my entire team, and the leadership has always been doing nothing. The way is very tolerant and gives me some space. What's more important is that the philosophy of my entire team is very consistent, and it is quite grateful to meet the right people at the right time.
financial:What do you want to do most if you have a lot of free time?
Wang Han:I may go to strengthen my code to meet the combination of the human brain and the computer. In fact, I have done a lot of work in this area in the past one or two years, but because of the specific business affairs, I have no way to do all these things. Because I feel that our entire industry people are doing inefficiencies and machines are doing high-efficiency things. Too many people choose to do this with manpower. If I have a few months, I will definitely strengthen this aspect.
financial:What kind of person do you most want to be?
Wang Han:A person who feels very happy with me, everyone has their own atmosphere, and everyone has a lot of pressure. When you are seven or eighty years old, what you think back is that this experience is Not happy, I think this is very important. This is not easy, but it is a cost-effective issue. If you think this reward is very meaningful to you, then you can.