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    The trend of the bond market is different. The organization expects differentiated services.

    2019-02-11 09:44:01

    China Securities Journal Xu Wenqing

    Despite the fact that the capital side's debt-bearing power still exists, many private equity, public offerings and bankers interviewed by China Securities Journal reporters have different opinions on the bond market. Debt supporters believe that market liquidity is still abundant, stock market performance is still weak; worried people believe that the difficulty of obtaining excess returns in the bond market will further increase.

    In this environment, banks, private equity FOF and other institutions are more cautious in giving money. When selecting debt-based managers, these institutions are more eager to obtain differentiated services. They are also planning to moderately reduce the proportion of bond asset allocations, appropriately increase the proportion of equity fund managers, and make forward-looking layouts.

    Debt market trend

    A large public fund investor in Beijing said that the economy will turn to high-quality development and high-tech enterprises will receive continuous support. In this process, the wide currency and low interest rate environment are expected to continue, and the current economy still has downward pressure. These are the long-term basis for the bond market. Although the bond market divergence has begun to emerge at the end of the fourth quarter of 2018, the profit-making effect of the whole year of 2018 still attracts a large amount of funds into the bond market. The demand for fixed income investment by institutional funds represented by banks is still very strong. Previously, as the short-term interest rate went down and the return on goods was declining, traditional bond funds and some innovative policy-based financial bond index funds became banks' substitutes for higher returns.

    “These factors have caused the debt market to fall sharply in the last two months of 2018, which has also aggravated market disagreement, but there are still opportunities for sustainable mining,” the source said.

    Some industry insiders believe that the bond market has limited room for growth. "In 2019, a large number of credit bonds will expire, and the probability of partial capital chain breakage still exists. The effect of wide credit needs to be observed continuously, and the phenomenon of continuous differentiation of rating spreads is difficult to repair in a short period of time. In the risk-free rate of the central downlink environment, credit The vouchers and pricing power of debt investments will be at the heart of future investments.” Another large public equity fixed-income investor said, “Need to pay close attention to factors that may trigger a market turn.”

    A person from the Rural Commercial Bank said that the attractiveness of bonds in 2019 is far less than that in 2018. In the short term, the upside of the bond market has been overdrawn. In 2019, interest rates may fluctuate. It is necessary to conduct very detailed investment research work. Dig into some opportunities.

    Private placement focuses on "differentiation" and "fineness"

    Faced with the uncertainty of the bond market in 2019, a number of private placements indicated that they would tap the opportunities of credit bonds and convertible bonds, try to avoid interest rate debts, and focus on the defensiveness and flexibility of investment strategies. There are also private equity sources who have built different risk-level products within the company based on different attributes of funds, and strive to improve the level of differentiated and refined services.

    At a meeting held by private equity FOF institutions, Zhang Mudong, the investment manager of Yinye Investment, said: “Interest rates will enter a range of shocks. There is downward pressure on the economy, and there is a policy of 'steady growth' and “wide credit”. At the end, the current 10-year government bond interest rate is close to 3.1%, so it will be very difficult to earn excess returns on interest rate bonds this year. If the 10-year government bond returns to the mean level, it will have a certain investment value." In the process of changing credit to wide credit, urban investment bonds may be the first to benefit, and low- and medium-grade credit bonds may also have the opportunity of value discovery of “Shali Gold Rush”.

    He said that this year will focus on the opportunity to repair the credit after the sinking of the credit, emphasizing the flexible conversion of stocks and debts, and appropriately adding convertible bonds. At present, the size of the convertible bond market has exceeded 200 billion yuan. After undergoing financial de-leverage and valuation adjustment, convertible bonds have entered the value range. In the process of converting the strength and weakness of stock bonds in 2019, the performance of convertible bonds is worth looking forward to.

    Jin Biao, director of the Assets Management Organization, believes that the bond yields in 2018 are too large. The credit risk has not been ruled out in 2019. The defensive strategy will be adopted. The preferred city investment bonds and manufacturing leading enterprises will be preferred. Control is shorter. Followed by real estate credit bonds. In addition, you will find opportunities to convert your debts.

    “In the past, bond products were actually a configuration product that was a little higher than financial management and lower than the trust. In the absence of default, many institutions use the same strategy to match all funding needs, and the market institutions’ investment strategies are different. The main difference is only the duration and the degree of credit subsidence. The difference between the two aspects comes from the different opinions of the investment research team on the macro interest rate environment and credit status, and has little to do with the client's capital attributes and needs.” Jin Biao said, But for the asset management agency, to sell the right product to the right person, the other side of the credit default coin is the expansion of credit spreads, providing high-yield opportunities for high-risk preference funds.

    He said that overall, bond systematization and integrated investment research capabilities are still scarce in the industry. In the current environment where bond defaults are still going on and the real estate industry may be in a recession this year, fund managers are particularly important for the differentiated and refined services of the fund side. In the past, the strategy of simply buying or holding leverage will encounter no small challenge.

    Bluestone asset management said that due to the short-term lower limit of the yield curve, last year's buy-and-hold strategy will no longer apply, and may even impact the investor's psychology because of excessive volatility. Therefore, this year's bond investment will test the investor's grasp of fundamentals, policy, and liquidity, as well as the timing control of accumulated investment experience.

    Strengthen the allocation of large-scale assets

    Not only fund managers are cautious about the bond market, banks and private equity FOF institutions are also planning to reduce the proportion of bond asset allocation, appropriately increase the proportion of equity fund managers, and carry out forward-looking layout.

    "We are now more concerned about convertible bonds, because the current bond market's overall yield is limited, and we need to get some income from the stock market," said a bank asset manager.

    “Some of the private equity FOF institutions we have visited recently have recently increased their research on equity private placements, even though they have a lot of bond fund managers in their portfolios, and they have also earned income in 2018.” A well-known private equity investor in Shanghai introduced .

    Hongyue Investment believes that with the fiscal and fiscal policies such as RRR cuts, tax cuts and infrastructure promotion, the market interest rate on fixed income may fall further, but space is limited. In 2019, investment should increase the ability of asset allocation.

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    Editor in charge: Huang Kai RF13494

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