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    Smart funds are the first to evacuate. The market outlook is more optimistic about low valuation and quality targets.

    2019-03-14 09:13:22

    China Securities Journal Xu Wenqing Lin Ronghua

    On March 13, the GEM fell sharply by 4.49%, leading the major indexes and important constituents.Wen's sharesDown limit. In fact, there have been signs "predictive" that the GEM is likely to come to the adjustment, such as the continuous outflow of the relevant GEM ETF, the ratio of the SSE 50 and the GEM index point reached the lowest value in the past eight months.

    Institutional figures have also made significant differences in the judgment of the GEM market. Some believe that this round of rise is already the “final escape space” of the GEM, while others believe that the adjustment is a natural phenomenon in the rise, and the future index rise stage may come to an end. However, many high-quality stocks with lower valuations are expected to perform better.

    Related GEM ETFs continue to flow out

    The data shows that as of March 12, the relevant GEM ETFs have risen by more than 40% since February, ranking first in the broad-based index ETF, but the relevant ETF share has shrunk significantly. For example, since February, Huaan GEM's 50 ETF share has decreased by 6.345 billion shares, a decrease of 30.74%; E Fund's GEM ETF has decreased by 2.49 billion, a decrease of 17.51%; ICBC Credit Suisse GEM has decreased by 0.1 billion, a decrease of 3.07%.

    In fact, in 2018, when the GEM index was falling, some "smart" funds continued to lay out the Huaan GEM 50 ETF and the E Fund GEM, causing its share to explode. Since the beginning of this year, with the continuous rise of the ChiNext, and after hitting a new high since June 2018 on March 12, these funds have also “goed first” and gradually left the market.

    At the same time, the data shows that the ratio of the 50 points of the SSE and the GEM index of 50 large listed companies is currently around 1.53 times, which is the lowest value in the past 8 months. This ratio was the highest level since May 31 this year, which was the highest level since May 2013, which was 2.02 times. Moreover, after the Spring Festival, with the positive expectations of small and medium-cap stocks in the stock market risk appetite and superimposed science and technology board, the GEM has become the leader in the rising market. As of March 12, it has risen nearly 42%, but the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 only rose 18.6%.

    According to industry insiders, the higher the ratio of SSE 50/GEM, the more undervalued the GEM is, the larger the upside potential in the future; the lower the ratio, the lower the valuation of the GEM is, and there is potential adjustment. .

    Optimistic about the performance of the quality of the market outlook

    In the face of the decline in the GEM on the 13th, there are differences in public and private equity.

    Du Yi, chief economist of Hongyi Yuanfang, said that before the GEM rose at the beginning of the year, it was basically at a low level in history. After this apparent increase, the valuation is still not high. From the historical comparison, it is currently at the bottom 25%. . When the economy is challenging and the monetary margin is loose, the GEM tends to perform better. This situation has occurred at home and abroad, and is determined by the big environment in which the GEM is located. The surge in the GEM also reflects the development of technology, the government and enterprises attach importance to technology investment, including the spillover effects brought about by the advancement of technologies such as 5G, OLED and domestic chips. It is expected that the market has not yet finished, but after the previous increase is too large, there will be a certain callback, which is normal.

    Long Ding, chairman of Jinding Assets, believes that the GEM has accumulated too much profit in recent years. From a technical perspective, the GEM index faces an intensive trading zone of 1800-1900 points, which is also a strong pressure for rebound. However, the news that the science and technology board is about to open is good for the listed companies that have core technology in the GEM. It is recommended to keep the bargain-hunting operation in the late stage of the GEM. I believe that there will be more room for growth on the GEM. The six industry sectors, led by information technology, high-end manufacturing, new materials, new energy, energy conservation and bio-medicine, will drive entrepreneurship. The board index is up.

    Shen Hang, chief researcher of Jinta Investment, said that he is currently in the background of marginal improvement of macroeconomic policies and increased market liquidity. From the time point of view, the GEM continues to rise, the trading activity has increased, and the shock is the natural law of the market. The GEM company carried out the impairment of goodwill at the end of last year. If the macro improvement, the 2019 performance may be significantly revised in the background of the base of 2018. At the same time, the science and technology board will be launched, and the valuation effect of its valuation is worthy of attention in the later stage. Therefore, it is too early to judge the end of the GEM index market. From the MSCI increase in the GEM stocks, there will still be incremental funds in the future.

    However, another private equity source believes that the GEM index was basically pulled up by pig stocks in the early stage. The decline of major stocks such as Wen’s shares led to the correction of the ChiNext, and its future trend will directly affect the market of the GEM. .

    A billion-dollar private equity also believes that the index of the GEM may not be able to maintain the previous gains, but the high-quality stocks in the GEM will open, and the consolidation is just to give you the opportunity to change chips.

    A public fund analyst said that the systemic market of the GEM will come to an end. As the quarterly report is approaching, the late probability is a stock market. At present, there are a lot of high-quality stocks with low valuations on the main board, which have not increased much in this round of the market. The market outlook is expected to perform better.

    Hot searchgem Optimistic about the market MSCI

    Editor in charge: Huang Kai RF13494

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