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    Investment logic changes, low-priced stocks are expected to differentiate

    2019-03-14 03:40:19

    China Securities Journal

    The market continued to rise, and the low-priced stocks "bull stocks" frequently appeared. As low-priced stocks become “rarely scarce”, the investment logic of low-priced stocks is expected to change. A private equity source said that the next general price of low-priced stocks will enter a stage of differentiation, the main line will certainly move in a more certain direction, and the fundamental factors will be more concerned.

    groupBody rise

    "Because there isEastern CommunicationAs a model, many people are mining low-priced stocks - just want to engage in a 10 times stock, because 10 times stocks tend to rise from 3 yuan, 5 yuan. Financial commentator Wu Guoping said.

    Recently, many low-priced stocks with a stock price of one or two yuan have doubled. From the rebound from the beginning of February to the present, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 17.12%, while the Shenwan Low Price Index rose by 37%, and low-priced stocks became the market vane.

    Looking back at this round of rebound after the Spring Festival, except for brokerage stocks soaring, more are the group rise of low-priced stocks. As the "leader" of low-priced stocks, Dongfang Telecom's share price has risen from 3.7 yuan at the end of last year to more than 40 yuan, becoming the first 10 times stock since 2019. It completely ignited market sentiment.

    Chen Guo, an analyst at Essence Securities, believes that there are two general situations in which low-price stocks have obvious excess returns. First, in the case that the market is in the bottom range and the mood is extremely pessimistic, low-priced stocks tend to oversell, so they are correcting errors. The rise in the market will be even more fierce; the second is the marginal funds of the off-site individual investors, pushing the stock price of low-priced stocks to continue to climb.

    The current situation belongs to the former. Zhao Gang, chairman of Guangzhou Honggang Assets, told China Securities Journal: “High-priced stocks have driven the market in the early stage, and then many stocks below 2 yuan have risen. Now low-priced stocks are the oversold rebound in the early days of the bull market. They also fell from 5 yuan before. To 2 yuan, the market value after the rise is only twenty-three billion yuan."

    “When market sentiment is high, it is normal for low-priced stocks to be speculative. A-shares have always had this tradition. The main reason is that low-priced stocks are small, the concept involves more and more, and you can achieve strong growth without too much money. Low The rebound in price stocks has driven market sentiment, which has attracted more funds to enter the market,” said a person from the New Rich Capital Research Center.

    Sudden decrease in quantity

    At present, quite a lot of money is attacking low-priced stocks, which may also mean more and more risks.Oriental wealthAccording to Choice data, at the end of 2018, there were 970 stocks with stock prices below 5 yuan. As of March 13, this number plummeted to 546.

    In Wu Guoping's view, the logic of low-priced stock speculation will change, not as general as before, and what will fall if it falls to the bottom. "The next fund will not choose goodwill "explosive mine", poor performance stocks, delisting risk stocks, the main force is risk-aware. But some low-priced stocks will still have big opportunities. Many funds to find low-priced stocks are in accordance with Eastern Communications The model, I believe there are 10 times stocks coming out."

    In the end, what kind of low-priced stocks will trigger the crazy chase of funds? Liu Weijie, the investment director of Qi Chuang Group, recently caught a double-price stock: “The purchase price is less than 2 yuan, and the stock price has risen to 4 yuan in just over a month. The reason why it was chosen is to discover its historical trend. It has risen fast, it has fallen fast, there is a trajectory of funds being speculative, and liquidity is also very important. After a round of rebound, the definition of low-priced stocks will be more broad, investors can not see absolute prices, and must combine themes. Double concept with low price."

    "Looking for low-priced stocks, you can buy them at low prices. For some stocks with high pledge rates and too many goodwill, after the annual report and the first quarter report are released, if the performance does not improve significantly, the market may vote with the feet. Wu Guoping said.

    Focus on fundamentals

    The New Rich Capital Research Center believes that the low-priced stock market is difficult to sustain. The risk is rising. The value of low-priced stocks is difficult to match its performance. Some low-priced stocks are fraudulent or investigated. Once there is a big negative, the stocks may continue to fall.

    In Zhao Gang’s view, A-shares may present certain characteristics of Hong Kong stocks in the future. Therefore, low-priced stocks often have hidden risks. “There will not be too many active stocks in the future, and may mainly focus on the relevant stocks of CSI 300 and CSI 500. Many stocks in Hong Kong stocks often have no trading volume on one trading day. The market outlook index may fluctuate upwards, with the focus on deepening stocks."

    “We are investigating, mainly looking for companies with relatively healthy finances, small pledges, and more cash. At the same time, their industries are emerging industries or have prospects in the future.” Wu Guoping said that it is necessary to look at the fundamentals of investing in low-priced stocks. Excluding some stocks with excessive growth in the previous period, and excluding some stocks with poor fundamentals, the market will develop in a more certain direction.

    Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund, believes that although some low-priced stocks and theme stocks perform well in the short term, the persistence is unpredictable. Once the market is adjusted back, these stocks may fall sharply. The blue-chip stocks have fundamental support and can go out of the long cattle and slow cattle market. "Overall, speculation is the cause of many investors' losses. Don't be complacent about a certain speculation, because it is likely to lay the groundwork for the next failure."

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    Editor in charge: Fu Jianqing RF13564

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