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    The GEM hits the biggest one-day drop in 5 months. The short-term shock has worsened and it has not changed in the medium and long term.

    2019-03-14 04:04:14

    China Securities Journal Li Bingjia Niu Zhongyi

    On the 13th, the two cities ushered in a shock adjustment. The GEM index, which led the gains in the previous period, fell sharply, falling 4.49% to close at 1,693.86 points, the biggest one-day drop since October 12, 2018. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.09% to close at 3026.95 points.

    Analysts pointed out that the GEM index fluctuated greatly yesterday. On the one hand, since February, the GEM index has led the major indices of the two cities, and the period has not been adjusted in a decent manner. The accumulated profit-taking disk needs to be oscillated and digested; The GEM index is currently close to the finishing platform for the first half of 2017-2018. The breakthrough is difficult and will not happen overnight. However, from a medium-term perspective, both in terms of relative performance and policy orientation, growth styles are relatively dominant.

    Strong adjustment of the ChiNext

    Wind data shows that since February, the GEM index has risen by 37.94%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose by 16.32% over the same period. The growth style has significantly overwhelmed blue chips.

    History is constantly repeating. In the two to three months of each year, growth styles are often dominant. In 2018, for example, in January-March, the GEM index rose by nearly 10%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index fell by nearly 10%. . What is the reason behind it?

    "A shares have obvious Spring Festival effect, that is, they tend to rise before and after the Spring Festival, and the style of small-cap stocks is dominant. Specific to the industry rotation, before the Spring Festival, consumer companies represented by leisure services are more likely to rise; after the Spring Festival, Industries with high-risk preference attributes represented by defense industry workers are more likely to rise."Soochow SecuritiesStrategy analyst Wang Yang said.

    However, this round of growth style represented by the GEM is obviously stronger, and many investors lament that "it seems to be back to 2015." So, what is the reason for the GEM index to exceed expectations? The market generally believes that the launch of the Science and Technology Board has boosted the valuation of technology stocks in the A-share market.

    Wang Yang said that in combination with the feedback law of A-shares on important policies in history, before and after the policy is launched, A-shares will have significant theme investment effects, such as the previous Shanghai Free Trade Zone and Disney.

    In the first two years, the GEM index is often regarded as the vane of market risk appetite. With the recent reactivation of the index, what is the significance of the 13-day sharp adjustment on the market?

    Zhu Junchun, a strategist at Lianxun Securities, said that on the 12th, the GEM once hit a new high of 1789 points, but then quickly fell back. Although the late session rose slightly again, it was said that the Shanghai Composite Index was adjusted to 3100 points last Friday. Replica.

    "The adjustment of this GEM means that the first adjustment of this year's market has been carried out in a wide range, that is, the first stage of the market has come to an end." Zhu Junchun analyzed that the rising market since 2019 is not based on the improvement or improvement of the profit side. , but the valuation of the economic improvement is expected to be repaired.

    However, some institutional sources said that in the medium and long term, the small-cap market style is relatively more attractive. The main reason is that firstly, the equity market is highly uncertain, and it is necessary to tap the fundamental risk and the correlation with the macroeconomic cycle is relatively low. At the same time, it has higher growth stocks; secondly, the small-cap stocks are not cheap overall, but after a large adjustment in the previous period, the valuations are seriously divided, and there are a large number of companies within 1.5 times of PB and less than 20 times of PE.

    The main line of the previous period has increased

    After the two cities continued to attack, as the market turbulence and differentiation intensified, the market's disagreement over the trend of the market is increasing. In addition, according to the time of admission, all kinds of investors have an obvious “anxiety” in the current position, which is also a major cause of the recent market turmoil.

    From the perspective of investor sentiment, according to the recent big data survey on wealth investor behavior released by Fortune Securities, the current comprehensive position level of investors is 67.7%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous period; and the continuous volume in terms of volume also shows short-term The mood is still very high. In addition, from the perspective of investors' expectations, 46.6% of investors expect the Shanghai Composite Index to trend upwards in the next month, down 15.9 percentage points from the previous period; 13.0% of investors expect the market trend to decline in the next month, up 3.7 from the previous period. Percentage points.

    It can be seen that although there has been a long period of time before the fall, the funds on and off the market have accumulated some consensus on the market. However, when the market goes to the present, it is an indisputable fact that the main index accumulates large gains in a short period of time. Therefore, any chasing high entry movements will inevitably bear the risk of a certain downward callback. From this perspective, the differences in the direction of the later operation between the investment subjects with different risk preferences are increasing.

    Since the beginning of this week, some signs of differentiation in the previous market have begun to show signs of differentiation. In particular, from the perspective of the market, more than 70% of the stocks in the two cities have fallen, and the sector is generally green. Only the park development, real estate, free trade zones, venture capital, etc. A few plates are red, agricultural abundance, domestic software, edge computing, chip concept, 5G, communication services, OLED, semiconductor and other early strong sectors are among the top losers.

    Then, at the moment, when different market participants participate in differentiation, how should ordinary investors intervene in the late market?

    Cinda Securities stressed that the current macro fundamentals have not changed much, but the enthusiasm for market transactions has gradually increased, and market hot spots have continued to spread. Therefore, in the current market environment, low-risk investors can gradually return to performance and valuation, and appropriately select sectors with growth and low valuation. High-risk preferences can be appropriately configured with technology-related topics, but attention should be paid to the continued theme. Sex.

    From the transaction level, market participants believe that the current market is still in the stage of evolving from the oversold rebound to the intermediate rebound. It is not difficult to find that finance and technology are the two main lines of market rebound. After the huge earthquake, the market slowed down the pace of the attack and built a shock box. After the chips were fully exchanged, the market is expected to continue to perform in depth.

    Medium and long-term market is still optimistic

    Since the launch of this round of the market, the market rebound has been more than two months, during which many hot stocks have doubled. So how does the organization view the current market volatility?

    CICC (Hong Kong stocks 03908) pointed out that all sectors in the current market have accumulated large gains in the short term, and there has not been a significant consolidation during the period. Therefore, when the index runs to a densely populated area for more than two years, the fluctuations increase. Investors should not be overly surprised.

    Starting from the above logic, the agency believes that for trading investors, it should be more concerned with the volatility and backwardness, the trend strength and the transaction situation when the index starts to rebound again. That is, the rebound strength is still the same, the transaction is not shrinking or the main line is more clear, then the daily level rebound has a higher probability of extending upwards; and if the rebound continues in a relatively scattered atmosphere, and the transaction shrinks, it is necessary to beware of the second peak. Adjust the risk. For configuration investors, the overall valuation of the A-share market is still not high, and it is still below the medium- and long-term average. The industry leaders and high-quality companies still have configuration value. It is recommended to increase positions in the adjustment.

    Judging from the recent disk, the blue chip sector represented by the above 50 is in a state of weak growth, causing market concerns, dragging the Shanghai Composite Index near 3,000 points. AndPing An(Hong Kong stocks 02318),China Merchants SecuritiesThe head financial company represented by Hong Kong stocks (06099) launched a repurchase plan at this time to convey positive messages to the market that are optimistic about the development of the big financial industry. The maximum price of the repurchase price exceeds the market price, which will undoubtedly boost market sentiment. Especially the big financial sector is watching more emotions. Since the main constituents of the SSE 50 are large financial companies, it means that the SSE 50, which has been adjusted for a week or so, will usher in performance opportunities. The big financial sector is the cornerstone of the stability of the entire A-share market. If the big financial sector can rise steadily, the theme investment and industry rotation will also receive positive feedback, and the overall market rally will continue.

    Hot searchThe Shanghai Composite Index Growth Enterprise Index Shanghai and Shenzhen 300

    Editor in charge: Fu Jianqing RF13564

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