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    The real estate sector is in a tough trend.

    2019-03-14 04:09:50

    China Securities Journal

    Although the real estate sector was relatively tough in the two market corrections yesterday, overall, the performance of the real estate sector this year can still be described as “not warm”. But this does not mean that the real estate sector has no chance. Previously, Citigroup's report pointed out that although the market's moderate correction is inevitable, the Chinese real estate sector should outperform the market this year, surrendering a strong performance list and becoming a value component that stands out. According to the agency's forecast, the industry's compound annual growth rate of profits by 2020 should reach 23%. Although some institutions are still cautious about the industry's market outlook, many organizations have indicated that they are optimistic about the sector.

    Plate trend is tough

    Yesterday, some of the strong sectors had significant adjustments, but the real estate sector showed a low-opening trend throughout the day, and the trend was relatively tough. At the close, the sector rose 1.83%, becoming the top gainer in yesterday's disk.

    Since the beginning of the year, the real estate sector has also increased by 24.93%, ranking 15th among the 29 first-tier industries of CITIC. However, compared with the increase of more than 40% in the sector of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, computers and electronic components, it can be said that it is a "small witch". However, this does not mean that the real estate sector has no chance at all. Unlike the “green force” played by the financial + technology dual-mainline rotation in the current round of the market, the real estate sector plays a more important role in the disk than the “stabilizer”. Whenever the strong plate stalls or the main line of the disk is blurred, the eyes of the market have all turned to the real estate sector. Many market participants also expect that in the current round of gains, the real estate sector in the market is expected to see a round of upswing.

    From a fundamental point of view, the data shows that the cumulative transaction area of ​​30 cities from March 1st to 7th, 2019 was 301,300 square meters, an increase of 26% over the same period in 2018. The cumulative transaction area of ​​first-tier cities was 637,500 square meters, up 68% year-on-year in 2018. The cumulative transaction area of ​​second-tier cities was 1,443,400 square meters, up 16% year-on-year in 2018. The cumulative transaction area of ​​the third-tier cities was 921,400 square meters, up 22% year-on-year in 2018.

    Optimistic about the plate faucet

    The optimism about the real estate industry in the current market has quietly warmed up. However, under the background that the main line is gradually blurred and the financial sentiment is still unstable, some institutions are still cautious about the industry outlook, but many institutions have indicated that they are now optimistic about the leading stocks in the sector.

    CICC (Hong Kong stocks 03908) said that the current P/E ratio of A/H property stocks for 2019 is trading at 6.9/6.2 times, considering that the real estate control policies and macro environmental uncertainty risks have been lifted and the valuation of the sector is not high. From this perspective, the market outlook of real estate stocks is still worthy of optimism (refer to the previous experience sector valuation will rebound to more than one standard deviation of the historical center), recommending the valuation attractive, and laying the high flexibility of the core metropolitan area.

    From a configuration point of view,Tianfeng SecuritiesAlso optimistic about the future performance opportunities of the sector. Tianfeng Securities stressed that real estate is highly sensitive to funds and is really benefiting from the RRR cut. In the medium term, the agency expects that this year's cost reduction (tax reduction, interest on borrowing and lending) is expected to exceed expectations, which will help improve the real estate mid-term. Purchasing power. According to the above logic, the development field is optimistic about the real estate enterprises represented by the first and second lines of the layout, optimistic about the real estate asset management company with the credit interest rate down, and the property company that is improving in the medium term.

    Hot searchReal estate sector Citigroup

    Editor in charge: Fu Jianqing RF13564

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