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    Fight for 3000 points. Huang Yanming: Checking the capital will not hurt the market

    2019-03-14 14:20:48

    China Securities Journal Lin Ronghua Li Huimin Luo Wei

    On the 14th, the two cities continued to fluctuate and adjust. As of the close of the morning, the Shanghai Composite Index fell back below 3,000 points, and the GEM index fell 3%.

    The industrial marijuana, pork, and venture capital sectors, which were among the top gainers in the previous period, were all lower, and the recent hot topics such as digital hygiene also fell rapidly. The previous SSE 50, which was nearly 30% behind the GEM, rose steadily, and civil aviation and liquor stocks bucked the trend.

    Insiders pointed out that factors such as the profit taking of the market and the investigation of capital allocation have had a certain impact on market sentiment, which has put pressure on the stock index. The index may be volatile in the short term, but individual stocks are expected to remain active, and blue-chip stocks are more popular.

    Strong stocks callback

    On the 14th, the hot sector that has been among the top gainers this year has fallen significantly. Conceptual sectors such as the chicken industry, digital hygiene, industrial marijuana and venture capital were among the top losers. As of the close of the morning, the venture capital index fell 6.54%, and the strong stocks in the previous period have sharply adjusted back.

    In the early trading sector

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    Some venture capital stocks

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    It is worth noting that when the previous Shanghai stock index broke through the important points of 3000 points and 31,000 points, the big financial sector has repeatedly acted as the “leader”. However, on the 14th, the financial sector showed a trend of differentiation. As of the close of the morning, the brokerage index fell 2.44%, the insurance index rose 1%, and the bank index rose 0.19%.

    In response to the differentiation of the big financial sector, industry insiders pointed out that the brokerage sector has been leaping forward all the time.CITIC Construction InvestmentWaiting for stocks is a continuous daily limit for many days. But CITIC Jiantou andChinese people's insuranceAfter being "sold", the brokerage and insurance sectors were adjusted. A few days agoPing AnAnnounced the 2018 annual report, achieving a net profit of 107.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.6%, and the performance is in line with expectations.China Pacific Insurance,China Life InsuranceOn the 13th, the premium income for the first two months was announced, which increased by 5.16% and 22.38% respectively. In terms of the banking sector, most banks announced performance reports, and asset quality was better than market expectations.

    Multiple factors cause the market to fall

    In response to today's market adjustments, industry insiders pointed out that factors such as profit taking, demeriting, and stock index futures delivery have had a certain impact on market sentiment, putting the stock index under pressure.

    A public fundraiser: On the one hand, the recent A-shares have risen too fast, and the callback is positive; on the other hand, to some extent, the investigation of the fund-raising order partially withdraws funds from the OTC, which has a certain impact on A-shares in the short-term. . Judging from the current situation, it is expected that the delivery of stock index futures will have little effect on A shares. In addition, as the policy is expected to gradually digest, part of the funds will be cashed off, and short-term market volatility will increase.

    A private equity person in charge: In terms of investigating the impact of capital allocation, the speed and total amount of capital directly affect the height and speed of the stock market's increase. The short-term capital has a greater impact, but in the long run, it depends on the company's performance.

    A chief analyst: checking the allocation of funds has a certain warning effect on the market. The current market's rising slope is high, but the actual number of brokerage accounts has not increased significantly, indicating that the possibility of adding leverage to the market's memory customers is too large. In addition, the market resilience needs to pay attention to the blue chip stocks represented by the above 50, and the GEM needs to be cautious after the last round of upswing.

    Guotai JunanHuang Yanming, director of the Securities Research Institute, said: Continue to be optimistic about the market outlook, the market has not finished. On the afternoon of March 13, a media revealed that the regulatory authorities again checked the risk of matching the brokerage. If the situation is true, this should be a very necessary measure to facilitate the healthy development of the stock market. Now the degree of leverage in the entire market is not high, and checking the funds will not hurt the market. Drawing on the lessons of 2015, the regulatory authorities will prevent the risk of capital allocation early, which is beneficial to the healthy operation of the market.

    The GEM plunged

    On the 13th, the GEM index fell 4.49%, the biggest decline in five months, but the contrarian fund-raising funds emerged. The largest GEM ETF on the market, the E Fund's ETF, received nearly 1 billion capital inflows on the same day, the second largest inflow of funds since the fund's listing.

    According to Wind statistics, on March 13, the share of ETF's ETF increased by 600 million to 12.431 billion, calculated as the net value of the unit on that day, with a capital inflow of 972 million yuan, since the fund was listed on September 20, 2011. The net share of the share is the second highest and the capital inflow is second. In addition, the Huaying GEM 50 ETF share increased by 144 million shares, calculated based on the closing net value of the day, with a capital inflow of about 85 million yuan.

    Changes in ETF share of E Funds since the beginning of this year

    Since Tuesday, ETF's share of ETF has increased for two consecutive days, adding a total of 886 million shares. Based on the net closing value on March 13, the net inflow of funds was about 1.436 billion yuan, bidding farewell to the decline in the share since the Spring Festival.

    For the GEM that has fallen sharply, some insiders believe that the driving force for the growth of the GEM is still there, but it still needs to pay attention to quality companies.

    Pan Wei, general manager of Jinghong Investment, believes that from the perspective of relative valuation, in the horizontal aspect, the recent valuations of enterprises in different sectors of the GEM have improved to some extent, and some industries have increased their valuations particularly. In the vertical aspect, the GEM has experienced In the past three years of adjustment, the valuation level has indeed been suppressed to a historical low, even after the recent rapid rise, the overall is not significantly overestimated. At present, the core driving force for the rise of the GEM has not changed, and the stricter supervision will only make the market develop healthily in the long run.

    The market may be transferred to the stock market

    For the market outlook, many people in the industry believe that the index will enter the shock mode in the short term, but individual stocks remain active, and blue-chip stocks are more popular.

    The aforementioned public investors: short-term shocks should be appropriately avoided

    Should seize the opportunity to "on the train" or "change the car", the policy-oriented sectors and individual stocks still have a greater chance of adjustment, the market resistance is limited, the future index is expected to break through 3,200 points.

    Researcher of a public fund: a wide range of subject speculations or a paragraph

    In the early stage, some of the poor performance stocks in the market rose fiercely, mainly because the stock price was at a low level, and the risk preference of funds under the superimposed positive news rebounded. As the relevant stocks rose a lot, the stock price approached the chip-intensive area in the previous period, while the major shareholder reductions frequently appeared, and the pressure of individual stocks continued to rise. Looking ahead to the market, quality stocks with fundamental support will be more favored by funds. The index callback is normal, and it is likely to enter a volatile trend in the short term, but individual stocks remain active, and the index correction may be a good time to adjust positions.

    Pan Hong, General Manager of Jinghong Investment: Differentiation of different companies will intensify

    After the market has risen rapidly and the valuation of the index has been repaired as a whole, the differentiation of different enterprises will be intensified, and the regulatory environment such as supervising professionalism and refinement, and financial supply-side reform will be in line with the economic development direction and have core technical strength. Enterprises with excellent management systems will gain development far beyond the market average, and companies with the concept of speculation will gradually be eliminated.

    Oriental Fund Xue Zizheng: further downside space is limited

    The current A-share valuation is at a historically low level. Most of the industries are below the historical average. Some industries are even below the standard deviation. The overall further downside is limited. More likely to be reflected in increased volatility and structural inter-industry. Differentiation should be more optimistic for the market outlook. In terms of specific industry choices, in the future, we will focus on real estate, non-bank finance, and manufacturing. In addition, the policy mix of wide credit and wide currency will continue, and in this context, market activity will further increase. At the same time, some leading manufacturing enterprises have undergone major adjustments, and with the uncertainty of the future and tax reduction policies one by one, the excessive pessimistic mood will be repaired.

    In view of the market outlook of the big financial sector, the non-bank team of Huachuang Securities believes that the brokerage and insurance valuations are still in a reasonable range that the performance can support. The fundamentals will become the reassurance of the adjustment, and that the target price-to-book ratio of the brokerage sector is expected to be seen. 2.5 times.Zhongyuan SecuritiesIt is believed that the bank's historical valuation has a high margin of safety. Under the support of the industry's sound fundamentals, combined with a series of positive signals that have emerged in the near future, the pessimistic expectations of the market's fundamentals on the bank may begin to be gradually revised, and the valuation of the banking sector is likely to be repaired upwards.

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