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Review: Shanghai index lost 3,000 points, GEM index fell more than 2.5%
Financial sector website
Shanghai index (hour) (000001)
Financial sector website March 14th In the morning, the two cities opened higher after the low opening, but then fluctuated and fell, the Shanghai index fell below 3,000 points, and the GEM index fell nearly 3%. In the afternoon, the two cities were weak and volatile, and they rebounded after hitting a new low in the late session. In the end, the Shanghai Composite Index fell more than 1% and lost 3,000 points. The GEM Index fell more than 2%. In the early period, strong stocks have fallen, and the two cities have exceeded 100 stocks.
As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.2% to 2990 points; Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.82% to 9417 points; the ChiNext fell 2.58% to 1650 points.
In terms of sectors, the cement and civil aviation sectors led the gains, and the White Horse stocks (China Merchants Bank) The move is pulled up. Digital hygiene, industrial marijuana, edge computing, software, and pig farming led the decline.
The brokerage sector has plunged,Guoyuan SecuritiesOnce fell more than 9%,Huachuang Yangan,First venture,Tianfeng Securities,Zhongyuan Securities,Guohai Securities,Northeast Securities,Soochow SecuritiesAll of them fell sharply.
Institutional figures have also made significant differences in the judgment of the GEM market. Some believe that this round of rise is already the “final escape space” of the GEM, while others believe that the adjustment is a natural phenomenon in the rise, and the future index rise stage may come to an end. However, many high-quality stocks with lower valuations are expected to perform better.
Guotai JunanHuang Yanming, director of the Securities Research Institute, said in the latest view of the Shanghai Spring Strategy Association that the degree of leverage in the entire market is not high, and checking the funds will not hurt the market. Drawing on the lessons of 2015, the regulatory authorities will prevent the risk of capital allocation early, which is beneficial to the healthy operation of the market. The 2900-3200 will be an important resistance level, as it was once a chip-intensive area, and the recent consolidation of the broader market here has also proved this feature. However, we believe that the market's follow-up resistance is limited, and the future index is expected to break through 3,200. The 3200 points on the index require the help of the periodic sector, and we can see that this power is being saved. After the market breaks through 3200, there should be room. For the investment opportunities in the future, we believe that the technology stocks will remain in the first place, followed by the cyclical stocks, the value of the stage, and the growth of singing.
Tianfeng Securities: The liquidity bumpy policy is good. Get on or off?
1. Stick to the main line logic: Financial supply side reform and trade war easing are the most important backgrounds of the current market, both of which mean the transformation of China's strategic emerging industry development model. "Infrastructure, real estate leverage can not go to heaven, direct financing to support science and technology to establish a country" is the main logic of the market. Long-term optimistic about brokers, comprehensive localization alternatives, industrial Internet, 5G, military.
2. Short-term capital outlook: Foreign capital and hot money (expected by regulatory supervision) are temporarily rested; secondly, similar to last February, due to the rapid growth of growth style, it is difficult for institutions to change positions frequently, so institutional funds still have room to continue to change positions. A growth style with performance.
3, Q1 fundamentals outlook: The GEM is better than expected in the first quarter (the profit after the annual report washes the report, similar to Q1 last year, and the base effect of the quarterly report has always been weak). However, the magnitude of the downside of the main board is uncertain (the correlation between the performance of the CSI 300 and the PPI is the highest, and the PPI has been lower than expected)
4. Subsequent research and judgment: Supervision strengthens the expected self-realization, which leads to the follow-up of the index level. Considering the long-term mainline logic and the short-term capital and fundamental resonance, we continue to be optimistic about the structural opportunities for growth, but after investing in various themes, we choose companies that report high growth or exceed expectations in a quarter.
Founder Securities: How long is the bull market? At least the last round of A-share bull market
On Wednesday, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.09%. The recent strong GEM index fell 4.49%, the largest decline since 2018/10/11. Founder Securities believes that this is only a large degree of correction in the bull market.
There are many A-share investors, and individual investors contribute 80% of the turnover. Stock gains are not entirely driven by the company's fundamentals, and factors such as sentiment, policy, leverage, market capitalization and trading affect stock prices. In general, the consensus expectations are relatively poor, and the degree of disagreement is very large. It is often said that there are different opinions on why stocks rise. This round of rise is a typical representative, and the growth of blue-chip stocks is generally backward. Many stocks often have “no reason” to rise.
In this bull market, investors are generally fearful and suspicious. Once the decline is likely to have a more violent correction on the day, this has been repeatedly confirmed and repeated in history. For example, the GEM 2014/12/12, 2015/03/06, 2015/03/26, 2015/04/15, 2015/05/28 all showed a larger level of adjustment, down 4.94%, 3.25%, 3.91%. , 4.58% and 5.40%.
We have counted the bull market from 2014/07/23 to 2015/06/24. For the Shanghai Composite Index and the GEM, there is a phenomenon that the stock market often says “the bull market is long and yin”, which is not contradictory in mathematics. . The distribution of index yields in the bull market will change, the data will shift to the right, and the mean and median will rise. At the same time, the variance becomes larger and the tail risk is intensified, especially the tail risk on the left. From the following figure, the difference in the distribution of the rate of return between the bull market and the general market can be clearly found.
The average earnings in the bull market have increased, but the chances of the plunge have not decreased, and may even be more than the skyrocketing. This is the A-share "bull market in panic", while fearing to go empty, while fearing chasing high, the more the more panic, the more down Someone sold. If IV is used to characterize market panic, the continued increase in the implied volatility (IV) in the A-share bull market is a proof.
In summary, we believe that the collapse of the GEM may be just one of the characteristics of the bull market, and the market as a whole is still healthy.
Editor in charge: Guo Liang
- Comment: Shanghai stock index fell 1.2%, the stocks fell 100%, the net capital inflow of 2.8 billion yuan
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