Fundamental + valuation repair Car segment into the spring

1comment 2019-04-15 01:43:57 source:China Securities Journal Author:Ye Tao The second beauty energy comes!

On the one hand, the auto industry officially entered the quantitative change period, and the terminal sales margin improved significantly; on the other hand, the auto sector valuation is still at a low level overall, and there is still much room for repair. The industry believes that the 2019 year-on-year reversal of car sales will be cashed in advance, and the auto sector with double-valued valuation is expected to usher in the main wave.

  Industry is expected to pick up

With the vehicle destocking and terminal discounts narrowed, the automotive industry has weathered the darkest moments. The main feature is that the industry has come out of the downturn demand in May 2018, and the retail, inventory, and terminal discount margins have improved.

In terms of inventory, in terms of three-month moving average, dealer inventory in February has decreased by about 200,000 units in January; from January inventory equivalent data, January 1.4 months has returned to historical median level, 2 Although the month returned to the mid-high of 2.1 months, but mainly due to the absolute number is too low, March inventory is expected to decline significantly. The current dealer pressure has slowed down significantly, and the early warning index has dropped month by month.

Terminal discount,China Merchants Securities(Quotes600999,Medical stock)(Hong Kong stocks06099The average price of dealers in 30 cities was counted. From November 2018 to February 2019, the terminal discount data were 11.78%, 12.29%, 12.58%, and 12.52%, respectively. The trend of narrowing the mainstream joint venture represented by the North-South Volkswagen was obvious. It is expected that the degree of future concessions will be further reduced.

At the same time, sales of mainstream car companies have also turned positive. Relevant data shows thatGeely Automobile(Hong Kong stocks00175) The sales volume in March was 125,000 units, an increase of 3% year-on-year;Great Wall Motor(Quotes601633,Medical stock)(Hong Kong stocks02333) sales volume of 81,000 vehicles, an increase of 9.2% year-on-year; a year-on-year decline of -0.34%;BYD(Quotes002594,Medical stockThe sales volume was 47,000 units, an increase of 8.3% year-on-year.

Fortune Securities believes that the mainstream OEMs have experienced a general decline in sales in the first two months, most of which achieved positive and stable stability in March. This is mainly due to the fact that the head company will benefit from wide channel, full category and wide price coverage. The data in March confirmed the logic of the industry's reversal in the second quarter to a certain extent.

According to the data of the Association, the wholesale volume of manufacturers in the fourth week of March reached 68,873 units, a year-on-year increase of 2%. In this regard,CITIC Construction Investment(Quotes601066,Medical stockAnalysts said that in March, the retail sales volume was low and high, showing a gradual improvement. The retail sales in the last week was the same as that of the same period of last year. In the future, with the implementation of the VAT tax reduction policy, the Ministry of Commerce The announcement of measures to boost car consumption, the automotive industry is expected to warm back and forth.

  Valuation repair space is large

Since the first quarter of this year, the auto sector has seen a small increase, and the overall valuation is still at a low level. There is still much room for repair. This has caused many investors to still have high market expectations for the auto sector.

  Guosen Securities(Quotes002736,Medical stockAnalysts also stressed that the current auto auto parts sector valuation basically bottomed out. In particular, the auto parts sector, the current auto parts valuation has reached the bottom of 8 years, and the vehicle valuation premium multiple is far lower than the European and American; at the same time, the decline in sales has weakened the valuation of the industry: car sales continued to accelerate in October 2018, but The valuation of the auto parts industry has stopped falling. Considering the low base of the industry in the second half of this year and the inventory digest in the first half of next year, it is expected that the sales volume of the auto market in the second half of 2019 will bottom out and the configuration will be enhanced in the second quarter.

Through combing, it can be found that the current automobile auto parts industry valuation has been less sensitive to the growth rate of car sales. Domestic car sales have started to decline since July 2018 and have shown an accelerated downward trend. In January 2019, the car sales growth rate reached the lowest value of -16%, while the domestic auto parts sector valuation began to decline since the beginning of 2018, May - August is the fastest stage of valuation of auto auto parts industry. The valuation has basically stabilized since October. The auto auto parts industry's valuation rebounded slightly in November, and it is no longer accompanied by the decline in sales growth. In February 2019, auto sales increased. The speed has slightly rebounded (the passenger car has not improved), and the valuation of the auto parts sector has increased significantly.

As a result, Guosen Securities expects that after eight consecutive months of decline in sales growth, the auto auto parts sector valuation has fully reflected the extremely negative impact of sales, and the valuation needs to be repaired.

Keyword reading:Fundamental Valuation repair Car sector

Editor in charge: Fu Jianqing RF13564
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