Guotai Junan: The end of the credit comes when will the profit bottom come? Where is the opportunity?

1comment 2019-04-15 01:46:29 source:China Securities Journal The second beauty energy comes!

Money creation exceeded expectations, behind the market confidence increased more than expected. The financial data released on April 12 is a good testimony, and the market's confidence in economic recovery has been greatly boosted. In the face of a large and unexpectedly expected currency creation, the two major problems in the market are still to be judged: when the credit is coming, when will the profit bottom come? Where is the opportunity?

Signal 1: The bottom of the credit is coming, will the profit bottom be far behind? In March, the social welfare once again exceeded expectations, let us confirm that the credit is low. Then, our next focus will turn to profitability. From a historical comparison perspective, we are focusing on the early stages of credit cycle expansion, that is, we have already seen the bottom of credit, andMacroeconomicsTo improve the unclear stage, we found that the improvement of the profitability to the profitable transmission takes 1-2 quarters, and the profit bottom appears in the third quarter.

Signal 2: Winning the second hand, the attack under the structure. The second winner of this year is the grasp of the structural opportunities in the early stage of the latter stage. Although the data cannot be seen in the short-term macro level, positive changes in the early cycle of the meso level have occurred. As the market turned to profit-driven second half, institutional mainstream funds gradually strengthened, capital expenditures, real estate investment and durable consumer goods dominated the early cycle sector is expected to obtain relative returns. Different from the first half of the fund drive, the theme speculation dominated the market, and the return to the fundamentals in the second half exceeded expectations. From the asset price to the degree, although the valuation of the relative period of consumption is still below the average since 2003, but experienced 2015Supply side reformThe subsequent cycle is not the same as before. If the average value since 2015 is used, the valuation of the cycle relative to consumption is becoming more prominent.

The second hand of the winning hand is switched, and the cycle is attacked. Today, the second winner has arrived. We believe that the follow-up market main line should be switched from the capital-driven hotspot to the valuation of the fundamental support. In fact, the recent performance of the market performance report is better, and it has initially shown that the market attaches importance to profitability. .

Under this logic, the periodic section is continuously recommended. Positive changes in the early cycle of the meso level have occurred, and steady growth is expected to superimpose low valuation factors, and the cyclical sector will have obvious performance, such as building materials.Steel, real estate and other industries. Secondly, with the release of fundamentals and pessimistic expectations, the benefits of technology innovation policy dividends, science and technology board radiation and social financing have exceeded expectations, market risk appetite continues to be repaired, and ubiquitous powerInternet of Things,5G, intelligent network car,State-owned enterprise reformWaitConceptual sectionWill usher in performance opportunities.

Keyword reading:Guotai Junan

Editor in charge: Fu Jianqing RF13564
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