The two cities' gains narrowed, and the GEM stocks turned green.

1comment 2019-04-15 13:42:16 source:Financial sector website Just do it next week! Steady!

GEM (hourly)

Financial sector website on the 15th, the two cities rose again in the afternoon,GEMTake the lead in turning green, and make up for the short gap in early trading.Subject stockThe rapid rotation, the persistence is not strong, and the trend of falling back is highlighted, highlighting the lack of market information. Currently Shanghai Free Trade, Insurance,Coal mining,5G,industryMarijuana, etc.Sector gainsBack,GlyphosatePaper printing,Environmental Engineering,Tibet,Precious metalThe sector has fallen to the top.

  [Institutional Strategy]

  Lianxun strategy: social welfare data exceeds expectations, the market outlook can be more optimistic

  In January, the surrender of social data exceeded the signs of economic recovery, giving the pessimistic market a glimmer of light. In March, the manufacturing PMI returned to the dry line and continued the hope of recovery. Today, the social welfare and exports Both are much higher than expected, indicating that the logic of economic recovery has become more solid, and we can be more optimistic about the market outlook.The social and export data exceeded expectations, indicating that the logic of economic recovery is becoming more solid. We can be more optimistic about the market outlook and still maintain the medium term in our second quarter outlook report.Shanghai indexsee3500Point of view.Next is also the high season of the quarterly report, we recommend to configure the return to the fundamentals, recommend two main lines:(1The main line of economic recovery: the cycle.After the social turning point is clear, the economy will bottom out in the second half of the year, and the mid-stream and downstream sectors will take the lead in recovery. In particular, some industry-recommended earnings expectations will be more advanced. We recommend:Automobiles, home appliances, machinery, electrical equipment, building materials.(2The main line of foreign investment adjustment: finance.On the one hand, the valuation of most financial stocks is still low, which is a rare value.on the other hand,BrokerAnd insurance will benefit fromcapital marketThe recovery, this year's performance is expected to rebound sharply from the bottom; after the increase in social resources in the first quarter,bankingPerformance may also exceed expectations.

  Haitong Strategy: Waiting for future data. The basic relay in the second quarter is difficult.

Core conclusions: Since the 12440 points, the valuation of the first stage of the bull market has been considerable. The current A-share valuation is close to the average of 2016, which is 30-40% since 2005, and the risk premium returns to the three-year average. 2 The second phase of the bull market needs basic relay. The leading indicators of the social welfare representative have rebounded in the first quarter. It is difficult to see the simultaneous recovery of the company's profit in the second quarter from the inventory cycle and the leading indicators. 3 Since the beginning of this year, the market's growth has been quite impressive compared to the historical annual performance. If the fundamentals cannot be seamlessly connected, it is necessary to pay attention to the risk of retracing. The so-called high mountains and high winds have both offensive and defensive phases.

  Essence Strategy: Policy or enter a phased observation period

Considering the current overall environment, we expect the market to remain inertial in the short-term, but as the economy is not clear in the medium term after the short-term rebound, the loose expectations of monetary policy may be phased. After that, the probability will be maintained on the new platform. Concussion pattern. Considering a quarterly report, economic and financial data and expectations, market performance, and incremental funds, we believe that in the current environment, the previous period of increase is small.Value blue chipThere will be a round of upswings in the stock market, which may cause the index to rise, but most of the stocks have a limited effect on making money..In general, the industry focuses on cyclical products, real estate, and banks. Focus on the topicState-owned enterprise reform,Belt and Road,Shanghai Free-Trade Zone, the Yangtze River Delta and so on.

  Guojun Strategy: Currency Creation Surpasses Expectations Behind Market Confidence Increases Exceeds Expectations

The market callback is mainly due to the fact that the previous profitable chips have fulfilled the demand, just as we have always mentioned the first winner of this year's market. Today, the second winner has arrived. We believe that the follow-up market main line should be switched from the capital-driven hotspot to the valuation of the fundamental support. In fact, the recent performance of the market performance report is better, and it has initially shown that the market attaches importance to profitability. . Under this logic, we continue to recommend the cycle section. Although the data cannot be seen in the short-term macro level, the positive changes in the early cycle of the meso level have already occurred. The steady growth expectation is superimposed on the low valuation factors, and the cyclical sector will have obvious performance, such as building materials.Steel, real estate and other industries. Secondly, with the release of fundamentals and pessimistic expectations, the benefits of technology innovation policy dividends, science and technology board radiation and social financing have exceeded expectations, market risk appetite continues to be repaired, and ubiquitous powerInternet of Things, 5G, intelligent networked cars, state-owned enterprise reform, etc.Conceptual sectionWill usher in performance opportunities.

  GF strategy: continue to cycle up to increase A-share allocation wide credit continues to benefit

From the initial experience of comparable bear-turning cattle in the history of A-shares, the valuation expansion of the +3M to +6M range on the bottom right side is often smaller than the initial three-month range. The degree of valuation expansion is positively related to the improvement of profitability. Among the three factors that reflect the impact of valuation, the weight of liquidity and risk preference declines and the weight of profit expectations rises. The short-term trend of the market is mainly related to changes in profitability. In addition, in the early stage on the bottom right side, after a round of complete style rotation (each style runs for at least two consecutive weeks), and the style of the previous stagflation, the market tends to oscillate. It is expected that cyclical stocks will continue to lead the market in the short term. When the shock adjustment period of historical experience is determined by the marginal weakening of corporate earnings expectations, we expect to be in the middle of the second quarter. Looking back at the early stages of several rounds of large-scale bottoms in the history of A-shares (2005, 2008, 2012 and 2013), the initial three months on the right side of the bottom, the market's rise was mainly driven by the expansion of valuation, and the bottom of actual profit is not a necessary condition. It may be accompanied by continued decline in earnings growth (such as 2005 and 2008), but entering the +3M to +6M range, the degree of valuation expansion is more convergent than the previous three months. Both the change in valuation and the trend of the overall market are positively related to the marginal change in earnings growth: 1) In 2005 and 2012, the growth rate of profit in the +3M to +6M range was basically lower than the initial three months. Stable, the valuation did not change much, the market as a whole fluctuated between -4% and +3%; 2) In 2008, the second three-month range of profit growth was significantly higher than the initial three months, the valuation continued to expand The market rose; 3) In the second quarter of 2013, the profit growth rate of the second interval was slightly lower than that of the first interval, and the valuation contracted slightly, and the market fluctuated. From the past experience, when the core contradiction shifts from the denominator to the numerator, the A-share needs to pay more attention to the changes in the fundamentals of April-May.

  CITIC Jiantou: Credit easing is gradual, and the bull market is getting better in April.

In the second week of April 2019, after the chemical sector rose sharply and the market approached 3,300 points, the market entered a short adjustment period. This is mainly because the continued easing of credit brings the demand for the base currency, butCentral bankThe suspension of open market operations slightly raised the risk-free interest rate, causing a shift in the interest rate risk structure. This short-term adjustment constitutes an excellent opportunity for jiacang in the second phase of our bull market. FromStock marketLook, the market will gradually get better in April. Broad credit continues, both blue chips and growth will rise. First, interest rates have fallen, the economy has recovered, and the real estate and cyclical sectors have become the most dominant direction. They also have a low valuation and cost-effective advantage. They mainly recommend real estate, building materials, chemicals, steel, home appliances, and light industry. Secondly, interest rates have fallen, growth stocks have been around for a long time, and they have received continued support from the policy. We recommend key sectors such as electronics and communications. As the bull market continues and the science and technology board advances,Brokerage sectorIt is also a highly flexible variety throughout the year.

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Keyword reading:A share 3200 points Chemical sector

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