Guotai Junan: 2019 will become the first year of the explosion of the intelligent network automobile industry

1comment 2019-04-15 08:23:07 source:Guotai Junan Just do it next week! Steady!

The further increase of policy intensity and the official commercialization of 5G will become the most important industrial catalyst for autonomous driving and intelligent networked vehicles. In 2019, the probability of becoming a turning point in the demand of the intelligent networked automobile industry is significantly higher.

  We believe that the intensity of the policy will be further increased5GFormally commercialized, it will become the most important industrial catalyst for autonomous driving and intelligent networked vehicles. In 2019, the high probability has become a turning point for the demand of the intelligent networked automobile industry. From the perspective of the beneficiary sector, auto electronics manufacturers, high-precision map vendors and V2X network service providers will share the rapid growth of industry demand.

  On the evening of April 3, South Korea was one hour ahead of the United States and became the first country in the world to open a 5G universal network.

  As a next-generation communication technology, 5G will not only have a profound impact on the communication field, but its excellent performance in high-rate and low-latency will bring a huge improvement to the communication level of the car.

  Guotai Junan(Quotes601211,Medical stockCommunication teamIt has been emphasized that 2019 is the first year of 5G construction.,andCar networkingThe industry is a new application scenario that will inevitably grow in the 5G era.Guotai Junan Computer TeamIt is predicted that the high probability of 2020 will become the first qualitative time node of the intelligent networked automobile industry.Guotai Junan Automobile TeamIt is believed that autonomous driving technology is expected to become the next industry revolution in the automotive industry. The cornerstone of the development of intelligent connected cars is automotive electronics, according toGuotai Junan Electronics TeamAccording to the calculation, the Internet of Vehicles and the automotive electronics industry are about to enter a new stage of rapid development, and the curtain of the era of trillions of Internet of Vehicles has been opened.

  Recently,Guotai Junan TMT four teams jointly voicedWe will launch a special report on "Intelligent Networked Vehicles, One Billion Blue Ocean", detailing the explosion of the intelligent networked automobile market in the 5G era and investment opportunities in related industry chains.


  Reason one: policy support is open

  On December 27, 2018, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Car Network (Intelligent Networked Cars) Industry Development Action Plan".

  The document pointed out that the Internet of Vehicles (Intelligent Networked Vehicles) industry is a new type of industry that is deeply integrated in the automotive, electronics, information and communication, road transportation and other industries.China's car networking industry has entered a fast lane of development, and the scale of the industry continues to expand, but there are still some shortcomings in key core technologies, industrial ecology, laws and regulations.

  The Action Plan proposes five main development tasks:1) Break through key technologies and promote industrialization;2) Improve the standard system and promote test verification and demonstration applications;3) Co-construction and cooperation to promote the infrastructure of the vehicle networking industry;4) Develop comprehensive applications to promote market penetration;5) Combine technology and technology to promote the improvement of the security system.

  The Action Plan also makes a clear statement of the phased development goals -

  In the first phase, by 2020, a breakthrough will be achieved in the cross-industry integration of the Internet of Vehicles (Intelligent Networked Vehicles) industry. Intelligent networked vehicles with high-level automatic driving functions will achieve specific scene scale applications, and the penetration rate of vehicle networking users will reach 30%. Above, the level of intelligent road infrastructure has improved significantly.

  In the second stage, after 2020, technological innovation, standard systems, infrastructure, application services and security systems will be fully completed. Intelligent networked vehicles with high-level autopilot functions and 5G-V2X will gradually realize large-scale commercial applications. - Car-Road-Cloud" achieves a high degree of synergy, and the people's growing needs for a better life are better met.

  Clear policy guidance and industrial support are important prerequisites for the explosive development of the intelligent networked automobile industry.


  Reason 2: Industry turning point is coming

  Only policy support is not enough, and the development trend of the industry is more important.

  Previously, the "Smart Vehicle Innovation Development Strategy" mentioned that "the proportion of new smart cars in new cars will reach 50% in 2020, and the coverage of wireless wireless communication networks (LTE-V2X) in expressways will reach 90%".unmannedThe tracking of the relevant layout is evidence of this.

  Monarch TMT | 2019 will be the three reasons for the first year of the explosion of the intelligent networked automotive industry

  Source: OEM's official website,Guotai Junan Securities Research

  On the production side, the car companyThere has been a strong interest in the Internet of Vehicles, and the loading rate in the front of the Internet has been gradually increasing.. This aspect is due to the continuous breakthrough of technology, which makes the hardware cost decrease periodically, and the acceptance of car networking products by car companies is rapidly increasing. On the other hand,Since 2016, China's autonomous driving field has begun to emerge a number of emerging car companies starting from smart electric vehicles.Equipped with cutting-edge car networking features has also become a means of differentiation and competitiveness of domestic models.

  The domestic passenger car front-mounted car networking market is growing rapidly

  Monarch TMT | 2019 will be the three reasons for the first year of the explosion of the intelligent networked automotive industry

  Data Sources:Analysys think tank, Guotai Junan Securities Research

  If it is from the automotive industry as a whole, the timing has come.

  Through further comparison of the timeline, we find that the automotive industry is followingindustryThe latest developments in the field and the reference to the intelligent process of mobile phones have a certain lag.

  Looking back at the first three industrial revolutions, it is actually the process of using more advanced tools such as machinery, electrical and information technology to gradually liberate manpower from production, thereby increasing production efficiency and reducing production costs.

  For the upcoming Industrial Revolution 4.0, the “Internet” will be deeply involved in the production process, bringing the manufacturing dependence on labor and the optimization of production costs to a whole new level.

  Also for the car, "smart car + car networking" = driverless, will bring the fourth revolution in the automotive industry.


  Reason 3: 5G power technology mature

  Behind the industry's emphasis is the maturity of technology.

  carThe ultimate form of networking is the automatic driving, and communication is one of the core elements of autonomous driving, because the car will produce a hugeBig DataThe amount needs to be processed in real time.

  At present, there are two types of short-range communication standards applicable to the requirements of the Internet of Vehicles. One is the DSRC standard with perfect architecture in developed countries such as Europe and the United States, and the other is LTE-V, which is still being improved and still in the deployment stage.

  althoughHowever, the DSRC standard has been perfected and can be applied to the domestic car networking industry more quickly. However, LTE-V has advantages in key competitiveness indicators such as capacity, coverage, high-speed mobile scenarios, infrastructure completeness, and transition to 5G environment, which is more suitable for vehicle networking and automatic driving scenarios. From the perspective of generalized vehicle networking, Establishing a perfect V2X road coordination system requires high-level network transmission technology as a guarantee.

  We expect true autopilot to be implemented between 2025 and 2030. The autopilot industry will enter an explosive growth phase from 2019-2020It is estimated that by 2020, every self-driving car must transmit 0.75 GB of data per second, and currently4GThere is still a big gap in the network communication technology represented.

  The global autopilot market will grow rapidly (100 millionDollar)

  Monarch TMT | 2019 will be the three reasons for the first year of the explosion of the intelligent networked automotive industry

  Data Sources:Several bureaus:Smart car is the future - infographic, Guotai Junan Securities Research

  Unlike 4G, which focuses on communication between people, 5G forms an end-to-end ecosystem with ultra-high speed, large connection, ultra-high reliability and ultra-low latency. Compared with LTE-V2X, 5G-V2X will greatly improve the delay, reliability, speed, and packet size. LTE-V2X can support the assisted driving service, while the 5G-V2X can support the autonomous driving service.

  In summary, we believe that the high probability of LTE-V will become the domestic vehicle networking communication standard, the establishment of LET-V standard and the commercialization of 5G will greatly promote the development of the Internet of Vehicles and the autonomous driving industry.

  Industry promotes the development of next-generation car networking

  Monarch TMT | 2019 will be the three reasons for the first year of the explosion of the intelligent networked automotive industry

  Data Sources:China Mobile Technical Information, 5G White Paper


  Which sectors will benefit?

  The main industry chains for autonomous driving are divided into sub-sectors such as sensors, computing platforms, autonomous driving systems, automobile manufacturers, automotive communications, automotive control and automotive operations.

  Among them,It can be said that automotive electronics is the cornerstone of the development of intelligent networked vehicles.

  According to MarketsMedia's data, the global automotive electronics market in 2015 was 184.4 billion US dollars. It is estimated that by 2019, the global automotive electronics market will reach 280 billion US dollars, and in 2022 it will reach 380 billion US dollars, showing an accelerating growth trend.

  At present, there is a large technological gap between domestic auto electronics manufacturers and foreign manufacturers. Because of the special nature of auto electronics supply chains, it is difficult for domestic auto electronics manufacturers to enter the pre-installation market of automakers, and the catch-up speed is slow. In recent years, domestic companies have quickly acquired mature technology and quality customers through mergers and acquisitions and joint ventures, and entered the pre-installation market of OEMs, greatly shortening the learning curve.

  With the advent of the intelligent networked car era, the trillion-scale automotive electronics market has opened.

  Automotive electronics maturity curve

  Monarch TMT | 2019 will be the three reasons for the first year of the explosion of the intelligent networked automotive industry

  Data Sources:Deloitte Consulting, Guotai Junan Securities Research

  Smart cockpit

  For end users, the experience of cockpit electronics such as display screens and entertainment information systems will largely affect their perception of the quality of the car itself, which in turn affects their purchasing decisions.

  The intelligent cockpit is composed of a car infotainment system, a streaming media rearview mirror, a head-up display HUD, a full LCD instrument, and a car networking module to form a complete system, which has an important impact on the decision of the consumer to purchase the car.

  According to Visteon data, the global vehicle sales growth rate will be about 3% per year in the next five years, while the growth rate of cockpit electronics will reach 8% by 2020.Global MarketWith a scale of US$43.2 billion, the average annual growth rate of high-end in-vehicle infotainment systems, high-end instruments, Telematics modules and integrated HUDs is above 30%.

  The development direction of the car is to liberate the driver. The smart cockpit will provide a more concise and efficient interaction mode for the new generation of consumers. We judge that it will become a standard, so the smart cockpit industry chain related companies will have development prospects.

  The traditional automotive electronics supply chain and the smart phone supply chain are vastly different, but the smart cockpit-related products have stronger consumption attributes, and the product structure is similar to that of consumer electronics. Existing smart phone suppliers can fully meet the supply demand.

  We believe that A sharesitListed companyOpportunities are mainly concentrated on: chips, screens, cameras, HUD, V2X.

  Monarch TMT | 2019 will be the three reasons for the first year of the explosion of the intelligent networked automotive industry

  Data Sources:Guotai Junan Securities Research

  Intelligent Assisted Driving System (ADAS)

  The intelligent cockpit will bring about a profound change in the interaction between people and vehicles, and the information behind it (road warning, blind spot detection, fatigue driving warning, etc.) is generated by the ADAS system. It can be said that the ADAS system is the core of the era of automotive intelligence.

  In terms of ADAS penetration rate, the market in Europe and the United States is close to 8%, and the market in emerging countries accounts for only 2%. According to PRNewswire, the global penetration rate of ADAS will increase significantly in the future. It is expected that the global new car ADAS loading rate will reach 50% in 2022.

  At present, the overall penetration rate of China's ADAS is very low. According to the data of the Automobile Industry Association, the penetration rate in 2015 is 15% (the bicycle has any kind of ADAS function), and it is expected that this proportion will exceed 50% in 2019, showing a rapid rise. trend.

  As the automakers continue to introduce ADAS functions and superimpose government regulations, the Chinese ADAS market will accelerate growth. It is estimated that the scale of China's ADAS market in 2017-2019 will be 27.5 billion yuan, 37.2 billion yuan, and 54.2 billion yuan, respectively, with a growth rate of 34.8%, 35.3%, and 45.7%. This is an accelerated development trend. It is expected that China's ADAS market will occupy the global market by 2020. 30% share.

  The ADAS market is accelerating

  Monarch TMT | 2019 will be the three reasons for the first year of the explosion of the intelligent networked automotive industry

  Data Sources:Automobile Industry Association, Guotai Junan Securities Research

  The ADAS system consists of four levels: the perception layer, the judgment layer, the execution layer, and the interconnection layer. Each level has different beneficiary equipment vendors.

  •   Perception layer: Radar and camera are merged into a trend. The complete ADAS system is equipped with at least 6 cameras. In 2020, the global car camera market will reach 9.48 billion US dollars, and the 5-year CAGR will reach 37.9%, showing a rapid growth trend;

  •   Judgment layer: The most technical part of the ADAS industry chain, the core of which lies in the algorithm embedded in the chip.Junsheng Electronics(Quotes600699,Medical stock) and other companies have launched a system integration business;

  •   Executive level: Opportunities are mainly in traditional auto parts companies;

  •   Interconnect layer: It is mainly composed of high-precision map and car networking module. The latter is connected with the car networking module in the smart cockpit. The main opportunities of related companies are camera, system integration and car networking module.

  Monarch TMT | 2019 will be the three reasons for the first year of the explosion of the intelligent networked automotive industry

  Data Sources:Guotai Junan Securities Research

  Electric vehicle industry

  The supply system of electric vehicles is showing a flat trend, and it is directly purchased from suppliers all over the world in many links, and then integrated directly in the whole vehicle manufacturing process. therefore,new energy vehiclesSupply system (includingTeslaThe supply system is more open, and suppliers that have an advantage in product cost and quality are expected to directly enter the supply chain of intelligent networked vehicles.

  Electric vehicle production continues to rise

  Monarch TMT | 2019 will be the three reasons for the first year of the explosion of the intelligent networked automotive industry

  Data Sources:Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Guotai Junan Securities Research

  The biggest pull of the new energy automobile industry chain to the downstream is the power battery link, includingmaterial, battery, PACK, BMIC, BMS full industrial chain. The transition from fuel to electric motors has also brought about an incremental demand for electronic control, which is based on the incremental demand for passive components and power semiconductors for electronics companies.

  Monarch TMT | 2019 will be the three reasons for the first year of the explosion of the intelligent networked automotive industry

  Data Sources:Guotai Junan Securities Research


  Which companies are most optimistic?

  (For company specific analysis, please log in to Guotai Ju'an Road APPCheck out the original report of "Intelligent Networked Cars"

  NavInfo(Quotes002405,Medical stock):High-precision map flowering results, traditional graph merchants' value revaluation

  Qianfang Technology(Quotes002373,Medical stock):Strong lead industry group, aiming at the unmanned V2X ecosystem

  Zhongke Chuangda(Quotes300496,Medical stock): Internal and external repairs to create quality products, power the billion-dollar intelligent network car market

  High emerging(Quotes300098,Medical stock): Terminal + platform, to create a billion-dollar revenue intelligent network car leader

  Move to communication(Quotes300590,Medical stock): Domestic car tracking faucet, "necessities" for car networking

  Lixun Precision(Quotes002475,Medical stock): Endogenous and extended, and automotive electronics ushered in accelerated development

  Junsheng Electronics: Asset integration advances smoothly, and the overall layout of automotive electronics/safety/functions

  Desaixi(Quotes002920,Medical stock): New products are rich, benefiting industry development

  Xinwangda(Quotes300207,Medical stock): High growth in consumer electronics business, power battery business ushered in an inflection point

  Vail shares(Quotes603501,Medical stock): Acquisition of Haowei Technology to further open the automotive electronics market

  Wentai Technology(Quotes600745,Medical stock): Acquisition of Anshi Achievement Semiconductor Leading, synergistic leap

Keyword reading:Intelligent network car

Editor in charge: Robot RF13015
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