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    Top Ten Principal Markets: Keeping the Bottom Line Thinking

    2019-02-11 01:20:36

    Securities Times 

    In the new year, how will the macro economy evolve, and what kind of strategy should be adopted for the allocation of large-scale assets... On the first day of the start of the new spring, the Securities Times launched the topic of “The Chief Market of Investment Strategies for the Year of the Pig”, inviting the top ten securities in China. The company's chief economists share their research and wisdom and look forward to helping investors identify their direction in the fog.

    Opposition

    Do a good job of risk-benefit trade-offs

    Gao Xinwen, chief economist of Essence Securities

    Dear readers, everyone is good for Chinese New Year! Thanks to the invitation of the Securities Times, I was fortunate to share my hopes for the New Year with everyone here.

    I used the "anti-human movement" to describe the current situation. This is our ancient insight into the unity of contradictions. This sentence tells us that even if prosperity is prosperous, we should be modest and cautious. Even if we are in a difficult situation, we should maintain our confidence and have the courage to face it. I hope that we can find positive factors in the immediate difficulties, brainstorming and working together to overcome difficulties.

    The current international situation is complicated, the global economy is undergoing a new round of adjustment, trade rules are facing new challenges, geopolitical conflicts, trade frictions are frequent, and China's domestic reforms are gradually entering deep water areas, and internal and external factors are interwoven under macroeconomic and financial markets. There will be more uncertainty. I hope that the readers will calmly face the change, maintain the bottom line thinking, do a good job of risk and return, and strive to surrender their satisfactory answer.

    Economic rebalancing

    Bringing mean return opportunities

    Li Xinglei, chief economist of Zhongtai Securities

    If the dividends released by the past reform and opening up have led to high economic growth as an "offensive", then today's economic growth rate can be understood as "defense." The offensive process deviates from the mean and the defensive process is actually the return to the mean.

    The understanding of the 2019 policy is actually two: steady progress, bottom line thinking. The former is to achieve economic rebalancing, while the latter means that the economy has a bottom-down, and if necessary, it will be strictly guarded against it.

    If the economy has a bottom, then the capital market should have a bottom. The stock market has a large decline in 2018, and it has the power to return to the mean. Under the background of policy stability, the stock market should have a bottom.

    However, under the tight domestic credit and the global economic recession, the probability of a bull market is small, and more from structural opportunities. For example, with the increase in the size of overseas funds and insurance funds entering the market in 2019, institutional investors The proportion will continue to rise, the “investment concept” will face an upgrade, and the valuation of large-cap blue-chip stocks is expected to increase. The US dollar index is weaker, and as a safe-haven asset such as precious metals, it may have a good performance.

    China's capital market

    Reform and innovation enter a new era

    Shen Wanhongyuan(Hong Kong stocks 00218) Chief Economist Yang Zeng

    In 2019, with the establishment of the science and technology board and the implementation of the registration system reform pilot, China's capital market reform and innovation entered a new era.

    In 2019, China's capital market reform and opening up will be further deepened, in line with the overall goal of the government's "distribution of services" reform. Gradually relax the capital market entrance, increase post-event supervision, increase the elimination mechanism; further improve the information disclosure system; form a regulatory system that combines legal supervision, administrative supervision, self-regulation and social supervision. The function of China's capital market to serve the optimization of residents' wealth structure has been further enhanced. Residents' demand for equity investment and long-term bond investment has further increased, and the promotion of capital socialization and the increase in the proportion of resident equity investment are highly consistent. In addition, China's capital market ranks second in the world and has a large development space. In particular, due to the long-term stability of China's economic and social environment, the attractiveness of global capital will be further enhanced under the current uncertainties in the global economic and financial markets.

    Third quarter market bottom

    Will gradually become clear

    China Galaxy(Hong Kong stocks 06881) Securities chief economist Liu Feng

    In 2018, under the combined effect of internal and external factors, China's economic growth has generally stabilized and slowed down. Looking forward to 2019, the Chinese economy has further downward pressure. It is expected that the short-term downward pressure on the economy will be controlled in the third quarter of 2019, and the economic growth rate is expected to gradually stabilize and short-term bottom.

    There is still room for downside on the current risk-free rate. The bull market logic of the bond market will continue in the first half of the year. The stock market recovery will depend on the implementation of various macro policies such as tax cuts and fee reductions. The balance sheet of the entity needs to be improved to build the bottom of the performance. It is expected that this repair process will run through the first half of 2019 and continue into the third quarter, when the bottom of the market will gradually become clear.

    Give priority to safe-haven assets such as bonds and gold, while paying attention to the performance counter-cyclical and still performing well under the impact of market systemic risk factors, including utilities, consumption, military, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, as well as benefiting from countercyclical policies. Industry, such as 5G, construction, etc. Industries such as medical health, food and beverage, banking, home appliances, and leisure services usually perform well in years when the annual results are slightly increased or negatively affected by the overall risk factors of the market, so it is also worthy of attention.

    2019: After the storm is a rainbow

    Guotai Junan(Hong Kong stock 02611) Chief Economist Hua Changchun

    In 2019, the global economy will still face many challenges. The global economic momentum has weakened, and the next two to three years will slow down, and the big country game will become the norm. The contradictions accumulated in the early stage of the country have eased, but they will not disappear in the short term. Periodic and structural problems are still exerting pressure on the economy. Under the unfavorable factors such as population structure and household balance sheet, China's real estate investment may start a new round of adjustment process, which will drive down the economic growth rate. We should keep a clear bottom line thinking and do a good job of risk prevention for better results.

    However, after the storm of 2018, the capital market has more confidence and confidence, and the equity and bond markets are worth looking forward to. With the relaxation of financial conditions, major assets can be more comfortable to cope with economic growth:

    ■ Equity market: It will be easier to produce in the range and structure. In the first half of the year, the opportunity to capture the interval band was cautious, and the structure focused on defensive counterattack. A more aggressive strategy can be adopted in the second half of the year.

    ■ Bond market: Treasury bond yields or bond bull market continued after the first quarter adjustment, breaking 3% in the second quarter. The risks and opportunities of credit bonds coexist. We are optimistic about follow-up policies to reduce credit spreads.

    ■ Real estate market: There are still fundamental support in first- and second-tier cities. Investors should avoid third- and fourth-tier cities in non-urban circles.

    Be alert to risks is necessary

    But without excessive pessimism

    Changjiang SecuritiesChief Economist Wu Ge

    Looking forward to 2019, hedging will be the biggest theme of the domestic macro economy. On the one hand, under the superimposed resonance of external and internal worries, the downward pressure on the economy this year cannot be ignored. From the outside, even if there is no trade war disturbance, global kinetic energy has entered the downward channel. If the trade war is added, the slowdown in external demand will become more apparent. From the domestic perspective, the lag effect of the previous de-leverage on the economy will be further reflected. In addition, the stagnation and monetization stimulus policies will be withdrawn, and the domestic demand momentum will also be weak. On the other hand, in order to hedge the downward pressure on the economy, the counter-cyclical adjustment policy is bound to increase its efforts. Among them, the fiscal policy is more active, and the expansion of special debts under the “open front door and block back door” may be the biggest point, but the budget deficit rate may be difficult to break 3%. Monetary policy adheres to a stable and partial easing, and may shift from structural “drip irrigation” to moderate expansion of the total amount. There is a certain possibility that the interest rate will be lowered. There is a certain degree of resilience in manufacturing investment, and there is also the possibility that real estate will be adjusted by the city.

    Comprehensive judgment, the domestic economy will be in a stable and stable pattern in 2019. Although the global economic growth slows down, external demand is expected to weaken, but the financial sector continues to hedge, and infrastructure investment is gradually rising. At the same time, as the interbank market interest rate continues to be transmitted to the credit side, the real estate investment experience is expected to stabilize after a large decline. In fact, China's overall leverage growth rate has rebounded from the fourth quarter of last year, and may continue to rise in the future. Under its impetus, the growth rate of social welfare is expected to have an inflection point in the first half of this year. According to the leading relationship of the currency relative entity, the macro economy may stabilize in the second half of the year. The bottom of the economy is the basis of the market. For this year's capital market, vigilance is necessary, but it does not need to be excessively pessimistic.

    Open reform

    The dividend has never dried up

    Soochow SecuritiesChief Economist Chen Li

    The Chinese economy has transformed from high growth to high-quality growth, and it is unrealistic to continue to expect high growth rates for GDP. In the bottom-line thinking framework for preventing major risks, it is unreasonable to flood the floods, completely relax the real estate, and raise the debt ceiling. For investors, accepting a moderate decline in economic growth is a rational choice.

    In 2019, the challenges facing the Chinese economy may exceed 2018. First, the US economy may enter a recession in the second half of 2019, causing global demand to shrink. Second, residents' mortgage pressure on housing mortgages gradually restricts consumption. Third, the financial expenditure gaps such as security and social security limit the total scale of government infrastructure investment.

    However, possible reconciliation between Sino-US trade negotiations, opening up reforms, bringing huge institutional dividends and boosting the valuation of capital markets. The opening of a large number of industries, including the capital market, is about to bring about huge institutional changes. First, the science and technology board promotes a new market-oriented experimental field for A-shares, and a series of delisting systems for issuing transactions will bring a healthier and more dynamic capital market. Second, the deep opening of A-shares has boosted the weight of its global indices such as MSCI. More and more international capital flows into the domestic capital market. Third, many industries have broken the monopoly, protected intellectual property rights, and promoted the rapid growth of domestic enterprises, especially the private economy.

    Stock market turbulence bottoming

    Debt cows can be mild

    Chief Economist of Ping An Securities

    In 2019, the Chinese economy still needs to face many tests.

    In the first half of 2019, the stock market may still be in the process of shocking the bottom. To push the market out of the bottom game, the government needs to introduce appropriate policies to boost market confidence: First, moderate macroeconomic regulation and control policies, but avoid returning. Strong old roads; second, the introduction of structural reform measures. As far as the current market is concerned, some blue chip stocks with sufficient decline in valuation, high industry position and high dividend yield have already had the value of fixed investment.

    The bond market experienced two days of ice and fire in 2018: interest rate bonds were favored by institutions, and credit bonds defaulted frequently. This pattern of differentiation is likely to continue in 2019, especially the small and medium-sized local financing platforms and bonds issued by small and medium-sized real estate developers.

    From the fundamental point of view, the RMB exchange rate still faces certain depreciation pressure, mainly due to the further narrowing of the Sino-US spread. The key to the RMB exchange rate trend in 2019 depends on whether the central bank is willing to intervene and how to intervene. There are two scenarios: the RMB exchange rate may be repeatedly consolidating after breaking 7 or narrowly consolidating between 6.6 and 7.

    In the real estate market, housing prices in third- and fourth-tier cities will face increasing downward pressure. The housing prices in first-tier cities are subject to large uncertainties due to the serious imbalance between supply and demand: regulation and relaxation may lead to skyrocketing, and the introduction of long-term mechanisms may trigger Plunge. Therefore, in 2019, there is a high probability of maintaining the status quo to prevent the ups and downs of house prices.

    2019: Embracing certainty

    GF Securities(Hong Kong stock 01776) Chief Economist Shen Minggao

    In 2019, after the 10th anniversary of the global financial crisis, the risk of a global economic slowdown has risen, and the uncertainty of domestic and overseas economies has not decreased, but has increased. At the same time, the party’s 19th National Congress clearly pointed out that the Chinese economy is “in the process of transforming the development mode, optimizing the economic structure, and transforming the growth momentum.” The rapid growth of the past 40 years has reached a turning point, slowing down and improving quality. Full of challenges and uncertainties.

    Relative to the economy, after the baptism of 2018, China's capital market has given birth to new opportunities this year. Focusing on policies in the first quarter of this year, focusing on economic fundamentals in the second half of the year, can be summarized as the relative certainty of the four majors.

    First, before the end of February, the Sino-US trade negotiations achieved initial results. Both China and the US are facing uncertainties in slowing down. The two sides are willing to reach a phased agreement. Relatively uncertain is whether the US is willing to negotiate in stages to avoid a stalemate due to a package of negotiations.

    Second, the "two sessions" in March this year are expected to reveal the largest tax cuts and reductions since the reform and opening up. It is now widely expected that the tax rate of major taxes will be substantially reduced. The overall tax reduction this year is between RMB 1 trillion and RMB 1.5 trillion.

    Third, before the end of the first quarter of this year, the Fed’s expectation of stopping interest rate hikes will gradually become clearer. If the Fed ends the current round of interest rate hikes, or causes the US dollar to weaken, the pressure on the RMB depreciation will be greatly eased, and the overall market will benefit the emerging market.

    Fourth, in the second half of this year, the Chinese economy will stabilize at a low level or moderately rebound. At the same time, the US economy will slow down and the Chinese stock market will perform relatively better than the United States. This is the Sino-US economic peak.

    Capital market this year

    More optimistic reasons

    Oriental Securities(Hong Kong stock 03958) Chief Economist Shao Yu

    In 2018, from the distribution of profit and loss of large-scale assets, according to Deutsche Bank's statistics, if the amount of assets with negative annual income is more than 90% in dollar terms, it is the worst since statistics in 1901, and even exceeds the 1929 Great Depression. .

    However, all of this has been turned over, and the determination of asset prices is an expectation of the future. What is the picture of China's capital market in 2019?

    From the perspective of domestic macro-revolutionary adjustment, foreign capital flow, RMB exchange rate fluctuations and the latest developments in Sino-US trade negotiations, the factors that have previously exerted pressure on domestic asset prices will improve marginally in 2019. At the same time, China's reform and opening up, such as a new round of state-owned enterprise reform, fiscal and taxation system reform and increased financial openness, will also release new dividends. Therefore, for the capital market in 2019, there are more optimistic reasons than in 2018.

    We believe that this year's macroeconomic overall framework "defend 678", that is, GDP growth rate of 6, GDP exchange rate 7, M2 growth rate of 8, this is the border, the actual situation should be more optimistic, specific, depending on the policy's camera choice . On the premise that China-US trade negotiations have made great progress, we believe that the exchange rate issue will no longer be as urgent as in 2018, and domestic policy space will also be opened. Positive fiscal policy, monetary policy with moderately liquid liquidity and structural reform at the micro level are “three arrows in all directions” to promote the goal of “stable employment, stable finance, stable foreign trade, stable foreign investment, stable investment, stable expectations” .

    Hot search2019 Chief Economist capital market

    Editor in charge: Fu Jianqing RF13564

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