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Tianfeng Securities: The liquidity bumpy policy is good. Get on or off?
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Going on or off? ——Interpretation of the total amount of Tianfeng
[Tianfeng Research] Song Xuetao/Liu Chenming/Sun Binbin/Wu Xianxing/Liao Zhiming/Xia Changsheng/Chen Tiancheng
The strength of A-shares will not change, the bond market will continue to fluctuate, the liquidity will be bumpy, the policy will be favorable, and what should we do if we have not got on the bus?Tianfeng SecuritiesThe Institute's total team will give you a weekly discussion!
1. It is expected that the infrastructure construction will start well in January and February, the investment growth rate will rebound, and the new construction of the real estate will be relatively weak, and the growth rate will drop significantly. Overall, domestic demand is not strong, but there is no decline in the cliff, which is a steady decline. External demand has resilience in the first quarter, and export growth is expected to maintain positive growth, but forward-looking indicators indicate greater pressure in the second quarter. The economy has not yet stabilized.
2, PPI January-February 0.1 should be a stage low, and the probability of continuous recovery in March and April, but does not mean that the price index has completely bottomed out, and there is still the risk of falling back or even deflation after May.
3. Entering the middle and late March, the vacuum period of the fundamental data will gradually end, and the rapid unilateral rise of the index may also enter a wide range of shocks. It is expected that the growth rate of social welfare will fluctuate within a narrow range throughout the year, and the core financial data affecting market valuation in the next stage will turn to M1. At the bottom of the M1 year-on-year growth rate, the annual shocks rebounded to 7-9%, which corresponds to a high volatility and central rebound in the stock market. Maintain the judgment in the annual report: the real economy will stabilize in the second half of the year, and the stocks will move in a N-shape.
1. Stick to the main line logic: Financial supply side reform and trade war easing are the most important backgrounds of the current market, both of which mean the transformation of China's strategic emerging industry development model. "Infrastructure, real estate leverage can not go to heaven, direct financing to support science and technology to establish a country" is the main logic of the market. Long-term optimistic about brokers, comprehensive localization alternatives, industrial Internet, 5G, military.
2. Short-term capital outlook: Foreign capital (when global risk appetite declines, US stocks fall, general foreign capital outflows of A shares) and hot money (expected to strengthen supervision) temporarily rest; secondly, similar to last February, due to the growth style is rising too fast, This has made it difficult for institutions to change their positions in large quantities, so institutional funds still have room to continue to change positions and have a growth style of performance.
3, Q1 fundamentals outlook: The GEM is better than expected in the first quarter (the profit after the annual report washes the report, similar to Q1 last year, and the base effect of the quarterly report has always been weak). However, the magnitude of the downside of the main board is uncertain (the correlation between the performance of the CSI 300 and the PPI is the highest, and the PPI has been lower than expected)
4. Subsequent research and judgment: Supervision strengthens the expected self-realization, which leads to the follow-up of the index level. Considering the long-term mainline logic and the short-term capital and fundamental resonance, we continue to be optimistic about the structural opportunities for growth, but after investing in various themes, we choose companies that report high growth or exceed expectations in a quarter.
Since last week, we have found two problems. First, the funds are not as stable as before. Second, relatively speaking, the overall rate of return has declined in the volatility. How do you see the future interpretation? We believe that there are several aspects to be concerned about.
First, we must return to the fundamentals. We must objectively verify and evaluate the actual situation of the transmission of “wide currency” to “wide credit” and “wide credit”. On the one hand, look at the performance of the data, especially the March data; on the other hand, we need to pay attention to the periphery, because the periphery is always an important premise and variable of domestic macro-control, monetary policy, asset pricing, and this is clearly mentioned in the government work report. Pay attention to the peripheral input risk problem, so the external trend is more critical. Will the Fed have more positive actions in March? Are there any further instructions for overseas data? The US debt has been in the position of 2.60% for a long time, will there be a choice in the direction? These have an impact on China's monetary policy.
Second, pay attention to the direction of monetary policy and the guidance of interest rates, which is the anchor of pricing in the bond market. Recently, we are paying attention to the issue of "two tracks and one track". From the perspective of the benchmark of deposit and loan benchmark interest rates and money market interest rates, we should be able to make it clear that this does not at least pose significant negative pressure on the bond market. Even to a certain extent, its ultimate goal is to implement the requirements of the government work report to reduce the direction of real interest rates. From the perspective of lowering the nominal interest rate to lower the real interest rate, the direction of the bond market evolution should be downward. This is an important prerequisite for us to maintain a relatively optimistic judgment on the bond market. We believe that the current internal and external environment is conducive to maintaining monetary policy to remain stable and relaxed. The ultimate goal of the policy is to guide the lending rate down, and the downside of the debt side should be the premise of the lending rate, so it depends on how the central bank pricing this anchor. And the operation of commercial banks. More importantly, whether the fundamentals support the adjustment and turn of monetary policy, we believe that it is still far from this point. From the point of view of the reporter's question on the weekend of Yi Gang and the previous monetary policy, "reduction + two tracks and one track" should be the main axis of this year's monetary policy. From this main axis, we can see the relief of the cost of the debt side. Conservatively, at least the interest rate can be stabilized. Therefore, when the interest rate curve is relatively steep, the overall interest rate adjustment is not very stressful.
The third is the problem of stocks and securities. According to our logic and judgment, the current macro environment can be compared with 1998-2002. Changes in future fundamentals are certainly a slow process, but there is a clear indication of liquidity, which has positive support for the bond market. The macro environment inside and outside this round has no substantial negative impact on interest rates. In the future, we will maintain our previous judgments in terms of strategy. In the short term, we will oscillate in the short term. The upper limit will be 3.74% in the first ten years, and the medium and long-term interest rates will fall.
In terms of credit bonds, the market has recently paid more attention to the exchange's review of the issuance of corporate bonds, especially the changes in the issuance of urban investment bonds, such as further encouraging new loans. We continue our previous view and can be more positive about city investment, because the policy side gives a considerable positive signal. In terms of convertible bonds, we believe that in the case of an upward trend in the equity market, there is room for further expansion of the convertible bonds. It is recommended that everyone pay attention to it.
As of last Friday, the distance between the Wind All A long-term moving average (120 days) and the short-term moving average (20 days) that we defined to distinguish the market environment continued to expand. The 20-day line closed at 3,821 points, and the 120-day line closed at 3,484. The short-term moving average continues to be above the long-term moving average. The distance between the two lines is 9.7%, which is significantly above the 3% threshold. The market continues to maintain an upward trend.
The market has entered an upward trend. We suggest actively maintaining long-term thinking. The only variable of concern is whether the market's profit-making effect disappears. According to the market-weighted average cost line we define, the average profit of active capital is still over 7%, and the profit-making effect still exists. Before the effect disappears, it is recommended to stay positive and increase the configuration in the adjustment.
From the valuation indicators, the PE and PB indicators we track, the median PE of each index constituents are currently within 30 points of their own valuation, entering the underestimated area we define, so consider the long-term configuration perspective, Combined with short-term judgment, according to our position management model, it is recommended to maintain a position of 90%.
1. The bank sector reserves up space. Since the beginning of February (as of the close of February 25), the banking sector has risen 8.64%, significantly surpassing the 16.49% increase in the same period of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, there is room for upside. February bank
1. More than half of the non-standard financing is not included in the social welfare. Non-standard financing can be divided into credit (trust loan and entrusted loan) assets, various types of income (acceptance), real stock bonds, industrial funds, etc. according to the basic assets. Only trust loans and entrusted loans are included in the social financing. . According to the “1H16 Wealth Management Market Report”, the total amount of trust loans and entrusted loans in the non-standard investment of bank financing in 1H16 accounted for 30.33%, which means that more than half of the non-standard financing was not included in the social welfare statistics.
2. In 2018, non-standard financing contracted too much, and 19 years significantly eased. In 2018, the total size of brokerage (orientation), base (one-to-one) and single-fund trusts decreased by 7.12 trillion. These SPVs are the main channel for non-standard financing, while the trust loans and entrusted loans in social welfare decreased by only 22,900. Billion. We believe that the scale of non-standard financing decline in 2018 is significantly larger than that reflected in the social data, and it has a certain degree of impact on the economy. With the strong supervision and easing and wide credit policy, the trust and entrusted loans of the social welfare in the 19-year period have improved, and the decline has been narrowed. It is expected that the non-standard financing will stop shrinking in 19 years, which is much better than the 18 years. We expect that the total annual social financing will reach 24 trillion in 19 years, and the growth rate of social welfare will rise to around 11%.
3. Interest rate marketization has an impact, but it is expected that the shareholding bank will be affected little. Under the current interest rate system, the deposit and loan rate and the money market interest rate are separated, the monetary policy is loose, and the bond issuance interest rate is drastically lower, but its impact on the loan interest rate is small, especially the interest rate of the unexpired loan. After canceling the benchmark interest rate for the loan in the future, the loan interest rate will be linked to the market interest rate. Then, the transmission of the interest rate on the loan interest rate will be greatly accelerated. After the market interest rate declines, the interest rate of the new issuance and the stock loan will be followed closely, and the monetary policy transmission efficiency will be greatly increased. Upgrade. However, the rapid advancement of interest rate marketization is likely to cause risks. Some small banks have poor pricing power for deposits and loans, and they face the risk of sharply narrowing interest margins. If the quality of economic downturn assets deteriorates significantly, there is a greater risk. After the marketization of interest rates, the core of bank competitiveness is risk pricing capability and customer base. Many debt-to-equity liabilities have been relatively market-oriented and are expected to be affected little.
4. The banking sector has been stagflation, and it is recommended to pay attention. Since the beginning of the year, the banking sector has only increased by 15%. In the same period, the WIND all A27.4% increase, significantly stagflation, and the upside is large. With the gradual effect of the wide credit policy, the quality of bank assets may stabilize, and the performance is expected to remain stable; the current valuation is only 0.80 times 19PB, which is at a historical low. Individual stocks are optimistic about Ping An, Xingye, Everbright, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Guiyang, etc. with low valuation and good fundamentals. Xingye, Nanjing, and Guiyang were previously under pressure due to local implicit debt or real estate regulation and control. As the policy marginalized, it clearly benefited.
1. Ping An of China: EV increased by 21.5% compared with the beginning of the year. “Different operating experience (13.9 billion)” contributed 2.8%, offsetting the difference in investment returns – 12.2 billion; net profit of returning home increased by 20.6% year-on-year, significantly higher than market expectations. Mainly contributed by the high growth of life insurance profits (+62% yoy). NBV increased by 7.3% year-on-year, Q4 was 23.5% year-on-year, and improved quarter by quarter; NBV Margin increased by 4.4% year-on-year; agent NBV increased by 1.1% year-on-year. The operating profit of the technology sector has grown steadily and can continue to contribute “one-off” profits. The long-term results of the “financial + technology” ecological layout are expected. ROEV and ROE maintain a high level of over 20%.
2. Brokers: Based on the increase in market activity, the net profit of the securities industry in 2019 was raised to 95.1 billion yuan, YOY+43%. As of March 12, the average daily turnover of the two cities was 522.3 billion yuan, a 42% increase over the average daily turnover of 18 years. The average daily turnover in March was 101.7 billion yuan, a 73% increase from the previous month, setting a new high since November 2015. The balance of margin financing and securities lending was 784.9 billion yuan, an increase of 126.9 billion yuan from the end of 2018. The industry will continue to benefit from the double positive policy + performance, and the valuation center is expected to further improve. Considering that the industry's Matthew effect is becoming more and more obvious, we believe that leading brokers are expected to enjoy the valuation premium. Recommended leading brokers (CITIC Securities,CITIC Construction InvestmentH), low valuation brokerage (Haitong Securities).
3. Insurance: Profits benefited from the improvement of the stock market. It is expected that the net profit of Ping An, China Life Insurance, Pacific Insurance and Xinhua 2019Q1 will increase by 65%, 30%, 25% and 35% respectively. It is expected that the new single premium and NBV growth of life insurance will be differentiated in the first quarter of 2019. The NBV of Ping An, China Life Insurance, Pacific Insurance and Xinhua will be 8%, 30%, -4% and 16% respectively. Ping An, Pacific Insurance, and Xinhua's P/AAV are all below 1, and the long-term investment value is excellent. Xinhua and China Life's short-term NBV growth rate is better, recommend Xinhua, Ping An.
4. Diversification: 1) In terms of trust, the balance of follow-on trust loans is expected to continue to rise, and the trust fundamentals will usher in an upward turning point. In addition, the prospects for service trusts and charitable trusts are broad, and public trusts will gradually be piloted. 2) Jiangsu Leasing “serving small and medium-sized enterprises, serving agriculture, rural areas and farmers”, closely linked with the industry, promoting “vendor leasing” to resolve the financing difficulties of SMEs, and fully aligned with the direction of “financial supply side structural reform”. Jiangsu Leasing's ROE is stable above 15% and its profitability industry is leading. The downward trend in market interest rates is conducive to raising net interest spreads. The counter-cyclical adjustment policy is conducive to stabilizing the non-performing rate, and all trends are improving.
5. Overall: The structural reform of the financial supply side gives long-term development opportunities for brokers and high-quality small and medium-sized financial institutions, and long-term optimistic insurance. A quarterly increase in performance may constitute a non-silver sector driver.
1. Regarding the property tax that has been discussed more recently, we believe that the property tax is likely to not be introduced in the short term. At the second meeting of the National People's Congress, the Central Leadership's speech "The Standing Committee of the National People's Congress will concentrate this year on implementing major legislative issues determined by the Party Central Committee, including reviewing the Civil Code and enacting amendments to the Criminal Law... Real Estate Tax Law...", It shows that the 19-year real estate tax law is in the formulation stage, and it will take some time from “development” to “deliberation”. After the deliberation, it still needs to pass the central and local level legislation. We think that the launch time or 1-2 years after the review, so the real estate tax will not be proposed in the short term.
2. Fundamental: The national real estate sales are unchanged, but there are structural opportunities in the first and second lines, and first-line housing prices or rebound. Year-to-date sales of new homes have fallen by 11% year-on-year, and the decline has narrowed. The cumulative growth rates of first-, second-, and third-line are 12.8%, -0.3%, and -31%, respectively. From the data, the sales of the new home market in the country is still low, but the first- and second-tier cities are warming up or stable, and the fundamentals are in line with our expectations.
3. Policy: As the city's policy is loose, it will continue to strengthen. In the early stage, we judged that as the land transaction volume continues to decline, the probability of local government's policy easing based on fiscal pressure will increase. Before the two sessions, the local government needs to clarify the central government's new year policy tone, so no major policy adjustments will be made. The government work report puts forward the signal of “implementing the city's main responsibility, reforming and improving the housing market system and guarantee system”, which shows that the local government has gained more decentralization in regulating autonomy.
4. From a stock perspective, real estate stocks are highly sensitive to funds and are really benefiting from the RRR cut. From a fundamental point of view, we believe that the early stage of the RRR cut will increase the risk appetite of the entire stock market. In the later stage, these sectors will benefit from the fact that the fundamentals will benefit from the RRR cut, and the real estate is the sector that really benefits from the RRR cut. The in-place funds and the recovery of mortgage loans will make the fundamentals more than expected. In addition, we believe that the “cost reduction” in “three to one, one reduction and one supplement” will benefit real estate in the medium and long term. We believe that this year's cost reduction is expected to exceed expectations. The cost reduction mainly includes tax reduction and borrowing costs. The former will increase the purchasing power of residents, while the latter will improve the borrowing costs of residents and enterprises. Both will benefit the real estate fundamentals in the medium and long term.
5. Investment suggestion: As the industry policy is loosened, although the overall fundamentals are still down, the structural market in first- and second-tier cities is worthy of attention, and the first-line housing prices will also rebound. We believe that this year's cost reduction (tax reduction, lending) Interest) is expected to exceed expectations, which will help improve the medium-term purchasing power of real estate.
We continue to recommend: 1) second-tier high-quality, high-leverage housing companies are expected to exceed expectations in a wide credit cycle, includingSunshine City,New Town Holdings, Xu Hui; 2) medium and long-term good real estate leader Vanke, Snake, Poly, Sunac. Suggestions to pay attention to: 1) Regional housing enterprises benefiting from fundamentals due to regional policy guidance, benefiting from the Yangtze River Delta Integrated Demonstration ZoneReal development, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regionHuaxia happiness,Rongsheng Development2) Real estate asset management companies that clearly benefit from the medium-term interest rate downside,Everbright Garbo.
Deterioration of the economic environment and poor transmission of monetary policy
Editor in charge: Zhou Zhuang RF12883
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