The three major speculations and coping strategies of the stock market this week: Is the performance of the quarterly report rising?

1comment 2019-04-15 07:18:33 source:Fortune Power Network Author:Peng Hao The second beauty energy comes!

  Guess one: A-share trend is far from over?

  Implementation probability: 90%

Specific reasons: recent partial stocksFund sizeThe surge of 262 billion yuan, the range rose as high as 12%, the size of the partial stock fund also rebounded rapidly from the low of 2.18 trillion at the end of last year to 2.45 trillion. The continuous expansion of this fund scale also indirectly indicates that the current market is still considered to be optimism. And because of the size and volume of public funds, they are huge in the stock market.Investment StrategyBasically, it is mainly medium and long-term investment. The configuration is mainly for enterprises with relatively stable performance and growth. Therefore, the rapid growth of public funds reflects the continuous surge of A-shares on the one hand, and on the other hand. In the case of continuous entry of medium and long-term funds, the trend of A-shares may not be over.

In addition, from the current pattern of A shares, Guangzhou Bandung believes that this wave of market is also difficult to end, first of all, this year's GDP growth rate continues to fall, but withreal estateThe stability of the market and the relaxation of the monetary level, the quality of GDP growth has become higher and higher; then the science and technology board in the second quarter; if you combine these two factors that have the greatest impact on A shares, you can It is found that there is not much reason for the current A-shares to fall. At the same time, combined with the disk on Friday morning, the index fluctuated slightly, and the trading volume also shrank significantly. This shows that under the influence of this special time on Friday, the market sentiment is generally stable. In summary, Guangzhou Bandung believes that in the current market sentiment is still relatively stable, investors do not need to worry too much about the index, the market's long-term upward trend is still there.

Coping strategy: Low absorption in the operation strategy is still the most important operation method at present, especially in the case of rapid conversion of market hotspots, grasping a medium- and long-term direction, and then gradually implementing a low-suction layout, which may be in response to the current market. Benign choice.

  Guess 2: Cyclical stocks outperform the market?

  Implementation probability: 80%

Specific reasons: The macro data in the first quarter exceeded the market expectations. On April 12, foreign trade and financial data were released in the first quarter. In terms of foreign trade, China’s exports in MarchDollarCalculated by 14.2% year-on-year. In terms of finance, China's M2 increased by 8.6% year-on-year in March, and the social financing scale was 2.86 trillion yuan.RenminbiThe loan increased by 1.69 trillion yuan. The above data are far beyond market expectations.

Cyclical stocks, which are highly correlated with economic trends, have always been an indispensable chapter in the A-share bull market. In particular, the industry that superimposes the turning point of the bull-to-bear cycle is more imaginative. Chief Strategist, Bank of Communications InternationalFloodThe recent economic data confirms the previous forecast of a recovery in the economic cycle in 2019, but the cyclical sector is not fully involved in the cyclical recovery of the market – the cyclical sector should soon outperform the market. Earnings expectations for many cyclical industries are recovering from their lows at the end of December last year, but there is still a certain distance from the level of profit forecasting for many defensive sectors. This situation is consistent with the observations of several periodic inflection points in the past. At that time, with the spread of the economic recovery, the cyclical plate relayed the market leading position of the defensive sector, and this time there would be no difference. The cycle runs repeatedly and does not start or end. The relative performance of the cyclical sector to this time is weak, indicating a neglected investment opportunity.

Coping strategies: Investors can verify the analyst's changes in earnings forecasts for various sectors and industries from a bottom-up perspective, thus identifying those sectors whose stock prices have fully reflected the improvement in earnings fundamentals, and those that are subject to earnings expectations. Promote the upcoming sector.

  Guess three: a quarterly report performance wave?

  Implementation probability: 70%

Specific reasons: After entering April, A sharesListed companyEnter more denseannual reportDisclosure and the forecast period of the quarterly report, on the evening of April 7,Strong new material(Quotes300429,Medical stockThe first shot of the quarterly report of the 20-year A-share listed company was launched, which turned the market hot spot into a quarterly report.

According to the regular report of the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock ExchangesPre-disclosure timeArrangements, 500 companies will disclose the results of last year's annual report this week. 337 companies have already carried outPerformance forecast82 pre-increased, 45 pre-reduced, 23 renewed profit, 4 continued losses, 43 first losses, 18 losses, 85 slightly increased, 34 slightly reduced, and 3 uncertain. Next week, 216 companies will disclose the results of the first quarter report, 92 companies have already made performance forecasts, 30 pre-increased, 8 pre-reduced, 5 renewed, 5 continued losses, 5 first losses, 10 losses, 22 were slightly increased, and 7 were slightly reduced.

According to statistics, excluding companies that have disclosed a quarterly report, as of the close of April 9, a total of 1026 companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges disclosed the forecast for the first quarter of 2019, of which 244 were pre-increased, 48 were pre-income, and 72 were turned around. The number of homes increased slightly, with a total of 593 companies pre-history, accounting for nearly 60%.

According to the data, it is estimated that there will be 186 stocks with more than double the growth margin of the first quarter.Middle mine resources(Quotes002738,Medical stock),Yisheng shares(Quotes002458,Medical stock),Kaier new material(Quotes300234,Medical stock),Huaxi Shares(Quotes000936,Medical stock),Tongda shares(Quotes300321,Medical stock),Huachang Chemical(Quotes002274,Medical stock),Minhe shares(Quotes002234,Medical stock),Lehman shares(Quotes300162,Medical stock),Silicon Bao Technology(Quotes300019,Medical stock),Phoenix-shaped shares(Quotes002760,Medical stock) The performance of 12 shares is expected to increase by more than 10 times.

According to industry insiders, the current index is at a high level, and the profit-driven stock price rise will gradually dominate the mainstream. Investors are advised to look for confirmed companies in companies that have disclosed high growth in the first quarter.

Coping strategies: The impact of the fundamentals on the market is beginning to increase. Individual stocks with unsatisfactory performance may face shocks. Investors can pay attention to industries and stocks whose quarterly results are expected to exceed expectations.

Keyword reading:Raised funds Quarterly report

Editor in charge: Li Xin RF12607
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