CITIC Securities: Waiting for economic data and corporate performance to pay attention to the three main lines

1comment 2019-04-15 10:02:51 source:CITIC Securities The second beauty energy comes!

Although monetary easing is expected to heat up again and many policies are steadily advancing, the intensive disclosure of economic data and corporate performance can confirm the difference between the actual situation and expectations. In the short-term fundamental verification period, the stock index will continue to be differentiated and adjusted. .

  Written in front

This month and last week's strategy, we believe that although monetary easing is expected to heat up again and many policies are steadily advancing, the intensive disclosure of economic data and corporate performance can confirm the difference between the actual situation and the expected, and the stock index will continue in the short-term fundamental verification period. Differentiation adjustment, after the verification can be selected.

This week, we believe that economic prospects such as social financing have gradually stabilized, despite last week.SSEThe KLCI fell 1.78%, but the market did not have the basis for a sharp decline.

Investors are advised to wait for the economic data and corporate performance to gradually land, and then grasp the timing of the layout. Configuration attentionState-owned enterprise reformThree main lines of banking and consumption.

  Research trend

The economic fundamentals have gradually improved, and reforms have continued to accelerate.

The social welfare has clearly improved, and it has initially confirmed the expectation of economic stabilization.

Judging from the economic data released last week, the stock of social welfare increased by 10.7% year-on-year. From January to March, the social integration meter increased by 2.34 trillion yuan.

In terms of structure, medium and long-term loans are also improving. According to the law of short-term financing and medium- and long-term excessive credit recovery, the entity's credit conditions have been repaired, which is a strong evidence to confirm the improvement of fundamentals.

This week is an important economic data week, fixed asset investment,industryA series of important data such as value added, total retail sales and first quarter GDP will be announced one after another. Investors need to wait patiently for data verification.

  Listed companyPerformance improvement remains to be seen

along withannual reportGradually disclosed, investors are more concerned about the situation of the first quarter report.

So far, the two cities have disclosed a quarterly report.Performance forecastA total of 1427, the overall performance of the pre-happiness rate of 55.71%, the pre-happiness rate of the same period last year was 60.89%.

among themGEM companyThe forecast rate of the first quarter report was 99.60%, which was basically disclosed. It was more informative and the pre-happiness rate was 59.44%. The pre-happiness rate in the same period last year was 64.30%.

In summary, the pre-happiness rate for this year's quarterly report has declined compared to last year. On the whole, it remains to be seen whether corporate performance has begun to bottom out.

  Domestic reform continues to accelerate

  Mixed changeIt is expected that the temperature will gradually increase, and the fourth batch of mixed reform pilot list is expected to be announced in the near future.

TakeGree Electric(Quotes000651,Medical stock)Equity transferA series of reorganization measures represented by the company attracted investors' attention to the mixed reform.

On April 8, the Central Office and the State Council issued a policy to improve the financing of small and medium-sized enterprises, and further implement the policy of targeted reduction of inclusive finance. On the same day, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Key Tasks for New Urbanization in 2019" to encourage the resident population of urban areas to reach 1 million. The 3 million type II big cities have to completely cancel the settlement restrictions, and the charge number of the domestic household registration reform has also been blown.

The short-term market has been adjusted,Fund positionAt a high level in history.

Short-term market volatility, some funds have been withdrawn.

During the year, the number of important shareholders was reduced to over 600, compared with more than 300 in the same period last year. It is expected to reduce the holdings by more than 15 billion shares, corresponding to a market value of nearly 160 billion yuan.

Last week, the net outflow of land to the mainland was 1.29 billion yuan, and foreign capital or profit-taking took place. As of April 12, the balance of the two financings was 969.2 billion yuan. The 10 trading days before the termination continued to rise, and the growth of leveraged funds was released. slow.

The fund position is at a historically high level, and the incremental capital space is limited.

According toPrivate placementRanking network, CREFI index, goodBuy fundOther institutions estimate that the current stock-based private placement average position is about 75%; the partial stock type public offering position is 66%, and the stock-type public offering position is 90%, which is a historically high level. There is limited space for future jiacang, and it needs to wait for new increments. The funds entered the market and further promoted the situation.

Overseas market disturbance, increaseA-share marketUncertainty.

  Europe and America are caught in trade disputes

Following the release of the United States to increase the EU 11 billionDollarAfter the list of tariffed products, the EU has recently drafted a batch of about 20 billion worth.EURA temporary list of US merchandise imports as a potential counter-measure.

Overlaying the disturbance factors such as Brexit, the global economic growth rate has further downward pressure.

The US economy is under pressure and US stocks have a risk of callback.

  Federal ReserveAccording to the minutes of the March meeting, given the current economic downside risks, most Fed officials believe that there will be no interest rate hikes during the year, but there are still internal differences.

Although the US stock market rose sharply last Friday because some of its performance exceeded expectations, there is still a general expectation of a correction, and there may be resonance in the A-share market.

  Chat configuration

In the short term, it is still necessary to wait for further verification of economic data, paying attention to the three main lines of configuration.

In summary, we believe that the economic forward-looking indicators such as social financing have gradually stabilized, and the market does not have the basis for a sharp decline. It is recommended that investors wait for the gradual landing of economic data and corporate performance, and then grasp the timing of the layout.

We are optimistic about the A-share market in the medium and long term, but we still have to wait for further verification of economic data in the short term.

  In terms of configuration, investors are advised to pay attention to the following three main lines:

  State-owned enterprise reform

RecentMilitary industryThe national reforms in the fields of home appliances and automobiles are frequent, and the fourth batch of mixed-change pilot lists are expected to be announced.

  bank

Benefiting from the increase in social welfare and the expansion of credit, the large financial sector represented by the bank is expected to continue to improve its performance.

  consumption

Investors have more fully anticipated the staged downside of consumption data, while the one-quarter report of the consumer sector has a relatively good horizontal ratio and has a blessing of consumption-promoting policies.

2019 letter · strategy perspective

Keyword reading:Economic data

Editor in charge: Zhou Zhuang RF12883
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