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Foreign capital outflows
Daily Economic News Zheng Buchun
US stocks plummeted overnight, and A-shares opened sharply lower on Tuesday without any suspense. After a full day of shocks, they finally fell slightly. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.69% to 2883.61, and the Shenzhen Composite Index fell 0.62% to 1542.07 points. In addition, the SME Board and the ChiNext Composite Index fell 0.65% and 0.52% respectively. From the stock index, although it has been falling for two days, it is basically still relatively stable.
The three major US stock indexes fell sharply overnight, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling more than 600 points. Due to various uncertainties, the US long-term and short-term public debts have repeatedly been upside down recently, and the market has great reason to believe that the United States will soon fall into recession. The historical increase of US stocks has been quite large. This round of bull market has lasted for more than ten years. Therefore, if the day is really adjusted, the lethality may be relatively large.
Lushangtong was suspended on Friday and Monday due to holidays and resumed normal trading on Tuesday. The result was a net outflow of more than 10 billion yuan. When Mingsheng Company (MSCI) announced the A-share new constituent stocks, the outflow of Beishang Capital was still slightly higher than expected. However, if we look at it from another angle, the A-share stock index has not fallen too much in the case of a sharp fall in the external market and a large outflow of the mainland stocks. In fact, it can also be regarded as “weak and strong”.
MSCI announced the included A-shares as scheduled on Tuesday morning, with 26 A-shares newly included, 18 of which are GEM. The new constituent stocks will take effect on the 28th of this month. The next foreign capital allocation will refer to the new weights, especially the index funds. In the future, funds from the north will be affected by multiple factors, and it will not only be affected by the single factor of “importing the right to increase profits”. In addition to the comparative advantage of A-shares in global stock valuation, the capital inflows to the A-shares in the North are at least affected by the external trend and the influence of the RMB exchange rate.
As far as the external market is concerned, the US stock market has shown signs of decline, and such a decline is hard to say that it is just like the previous times, that is, it is only a “recession on the way up”. US stocks should not rule out the possibility of a larger correction. A lot of recession opportunities. US stocks fell, most of the global stock market will call back, so the relative valuation advantage of A shares will be weakened, so the interest in capital inflows to the north may be damaged. In terms of the RMB exchange rate, if foreign investors buy exchange of A shares, if they suffer exchange losses, their inflow interest will inevitably be impaired.
In the market outlook, the individual feels that the probability of maintaining a volatile pattern in the recent broad market is relatively large, and the two gaps in the stock index have a chance to cover. If the outflow of funds from the north cannot be slowed down quickly, then the chances of A-shares making up the gap are slightly larger; if the external uncertainties are moderated, then A-shares may fill the gap first. In short, A shares have recently been affected too much by external uncertainties, so the short-term trend is almost invisible.
Investors do not need to be too entangled in "uncontrollable external factors", it is better to adopt a wait-and-see attitude, and can continue to hold positions, but may need to adjust the position structure. Generally speaking, in addition to the quarterly report and the annual report, investors have some trade-offs in the industry. For example, they can temporarily hold fewer export-dependent varieties. It is not too late to replenish after the reversal of the situation.
Editor in charge: Fu Jianqing RF13564
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