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    "Smart money" running? Mo pan! More good to help A-shares

    2019-05-15 06:32:55

    e company official micro 阮润生 毛军

    In the context of China’s counter-measure against the United States, on Monday, the European and American stock markets were losing weight, risk aversion was prevalent, dollar and gold futures prices were rising, and large US technology stocks closed lower.

    However, the performance of A-shares was relatively stable on Tuesday. After the opening of trading on Tuesday, the three major stock indexes fluctuated once. The Shanghai Composite Index sprinted 2900 points and closed down 0.69%. The Shenzhen Composite Index narrowed the decline. China Communications, National Defense and non-ferrous metals were among the top gainers; Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index closed down 1.5%, while the gaming and aviation sectors were among the top losers, while the blockchain sector surged against the market, and Meitu closed up 7.1%.

    In response to repeated threats from the United States, the United States will impose tariffs on products worth about US$300 billion. The Chinese Ministry has repeatedly stated that the increase in tariffs will not solve the problem, and launching a trade war will only harm others. For trade wars, China does not want to fight, and does not want to fight, but it is never afraid to fight. China will not succumb to any external pressure, and has the determination and ability to defend its legitimate rights and interests.

    Ministry of Foreign Affairs: The United States has a long-term asking price

     Rare net sales of 10.9 billion! "Smart money" running? Mo pan, more favorable to help A shares, there is a public offering called "the more you buy, the more you buy!"

    At the press conference held on the 14th, in response to "the Japanese side has repeatedly threatened to impose tariffs on Chinese products exported to the United States worth about 300 billion US dollars in the past few days. Yesterday, it was said that a hearing will be held on June 17th. What is the comment on this?" The question said, the Chinese side has repeatedly said that the addition of tariffs will not solve the problem, and launching a trade war will only harm others. For trade wars, China does not want to fight, and does not want to fight, but it is never afraid to fight. China will not succumb to any external pressure, and has the determination and ability to defend its legitimate rights and interests.

    Yan Shuang pointed out that in April last year, the US announced for the first time that it imposed tariffs on Chinese exports to the United States. The Chinese immediately responded with a strong response. Since then, the US has continuously issued new threats and several formal implementation of tariff-adding measures. China has resolutely opposed it.

    Last week, the US threatened to raise the tax rate on China's 200 billion exports to the United States from 10% to 25%, causing an uproar in the international community and a fierce reaction in the financial market. In this regard, the Chinese side clearly stated that similar situations have appeared many times before. The Chinese side’s stance is very clear and the US side is very clear. The Chinese side also called on the US to change its course and move toward the Chinese side, striving to reach a mutually beneficial and win-win agreement.

    "The Chinese community is generally highly appreciative of this calm and constructive attitude." He said that since then, the Chinese team has still gone to the United States for consultations, and the responsible actions have shown the greatest sincerity to promote settlement of differences.However, some people in the US seem to have misjudged the situation, underestimated the determination and ability of China to defend its own rights and interests, and continue to confuse and listen to the price. The Chinese side must of course explicitly reject it and resolutely oppose it.

    On May 10, the US officially announced a 25% tariff on 200 billion US dollars of Chinese products. Yesterday, the State Council Tariff Commission also announced the relevant measures of the Chinese side. Yu Shuang said that this reflects China’s determination and will to defend the multilateral trading system and defend its legitimate rights and interests. The Chinese side has always remained calm and calm for the volatility and extreme pressure of the US side. We advise the US to take a look at the reaction of the international community, listen to the voices of people from all walks of life, calculate the gains and losses of their own interests, recognize the situation at an early date, return to the right track, and work in tandem with the Chinese side, striving to achieve mutual benefit on the basis of mutual respect. A win-win agreement.

    Northward funds sold a net profit of 10.9 billion

    In the context of global stock market volatility, the interconnected market continued to maintain a high outflow on Tuesday, and Shanghai Stock Connect became the main “blood point”.

    On May 14th, under the background of the highest record in the year, Shanghai Stock Connect once again became the main selling force of the net, with an amount of about 7.2 billion yuan, almost twice the net sales of Shenzhen Stock Connect. According to statistics, since May, the funds from the north have accelerated to flow out, and the net sales in less than one month have exceeded 28.3 billion yuan, which has reached a new high since 2015. Among them, the Shanghai stock market sold about 22.4 billion yuan, close to the deep shares. 4 times the size of the net sales.

    The active stocks showed that liquor and financial stocks were shipped in large areas.Guizhou MaotaiRe-listed the net selling amount, approaching 1.2 billion yuan, the latest shareholding ratio of Shanghai Stock Connect has dropped to 8.82%.WuliangyeWas sold more than 1 billion yuan,Luzhou LaojiaoAlso sold netly;Ping AnThen it was sold net 600 million yuan.China Merchants Bank,Industrial BankAll are shipped. compared to,HikvisionA net purchase of nearly 400 million yuan.

     Rare net sales of 10.9 billion! "Smart money" running? Mo pan, more favorable to help A shares, there is a public offering called "the more you buy, the more you buy!"

    In contrast, domestic capital turned over to Hong Kong stocks, the trend of “southward and northward” was obvious. On the same day, Hong Kong stocks bought a net purchase of about 3.6 billion Hong Kong dollars, which has achieved net purchases for two consecutive trading days.

    Capital "running" GEM

    On May 14th, A-shares ushered in MSCI's first-round expansion as scheduled, and Mingsheng Index Company announced that China A's equity will increase its weight in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index by 1.76%, and the GEM target will also be included.

    Among them, the MSCI China A Indexes (MSCI China A Indexes) added 26 new ones, includingWen's shares,Ningde era,Mindray MedicalAfter 18 GEM targets, the number of the latest constituent stocks reached 264, and the inclusion factor was raised from 0.5 to 0.1. On May 28, the Japanese round of adjustment will take effect.

    According to the market reaction, MSCI China A-share real-time index and international real-time index fell slightly, while MSCI China A shares closed up 3.7%, among the newly included GEM targets.Nets TechnologyUp 2.4%,Straight flushUp 1.22%, in addition to the Ningde era,Zhifei Bio, Tiger Medical, etc. have achieved a slight increase.

    Different from the past, although the interconnection market did not immediately follow the MSCI adjustment of the A-shares, there was a phenomenon of “running” on the GEM. According to e-company database statistics, from May 6th to 9th, the total amount of funds on the North Bank's capital increase is more than 300 million yuan, the average shareholding ratio of the sector is about 0.63%, and the total holding position is close to 40.5 billion yuan. During the period, Wen's shares were added. The warehouse was over 136 million yuan, but the latest was sold out slightly, and Mindray Medical was also increased.

    In fact, the funds on the north are not blindly favoring big blue chips, but are quietly adjusting the fund layout. The data shows that in February and March of this year, the capital of the North China Fund exceeded the Shanghai Stock Connect, and the net purchase amount surpassed the Shanghai Stock Connect. This trend was further strengthened in May, even if there was a net sell-off in the whole market. The net sales force is also much smaller than that of Shanghai Stock Connect. The difference between the two scissors has expanded to 16.5 billion yuan. The side reaction is that the funds from the north are also increasing the allocation of small and medium-sized units.

    160 billion incremental funds will help A shares

    For the recent outflow of A-shares from North China, UBS, China’s chief strategist, told e-company reporters that the pace of foreign-funded A-shares will be affected by overseas economic conditions and global liquidity, and it is predicted that there will be a return of funds from the north. The main reason for this is that MSCI has increased the proportion of A shares. As A-shares gain weight in the MSCI Global Index, global investors have to start paying attention to previously low-share A-shares.

    It is predicted that this expansion may bring about 160 billion yuan of incremental funds, of which about 20% are passive funds. Passive fund allocation will allocate A shares before the closing of the trading day before the latest index weights take effect (May 29) or before the effective date. In addition, considering that MSCI has announced the expansion decision in early March, there may be some active funds in advance to arrange this round of MSCI to increase the proportion of A shares.

    Gao Ting pointed out that the volatility of the A-share market may be large in the short term, and it is very susceptible to the news related to Sino-US trade negotiations, and even the possibility of overreaction.Considering the short-term uncertainty increase, we are still relatively optimistic about the relatively stable and thus more defensive consumer sectors in the recent economic downturn, such as food and beverage, household appliances, duty-free operators, airports and automobiles. If trade frictions are weakened, external demand is also expected to introduce policies to stimulate consumption.

    Bai Haifeng, the fund manager of China Merchants MSCI China A-Share International Link Index, also pointed out that the A-share inclusion factor will increase as scheduled, and the fund tracking index will directly benefit. It is predicted that if MSCI raises the A-share factor to 20%, it will bring about 100 billion US dollars of incremental funds (including active and passive indices) for A-shares; continue to be optimistic about the long-term investment value of index stocks. The A-share inclusion factor will increase from 5% to 10%, which will cover many high-quality large and medium-cap blue-chip stocks in the A-share market, mainly in the four sectors of the A-share main board and the GEM of the financial, real estate, consumer and technology sectors. The medium and long-term investment value of the sector appears. At present, the valuation of the constituent stocks of MSCI China A-Share International Stock Index is still in the bottom of the history, and is lower than the mainstream broad-based index. The target-supported and low-valued target has a large upward repair space.

    Institutional willingness to bargain

    Since the A-share adjustment in April, the ETF fund, which is the benchmark for corporate capital, has experienced a large-scale net inflow of funds. Last week, the equity ETF net purchase was about 5.8 billion, and the net inflow was about 14.2 billion yuan, a record high in half a year. Institutions have a strong willingness to bargain.

    Moreover, with the adjustment of the market, the willingness to reduce industrial capital began to weaken, and the increase in holdings began to increase. Last week, important shareholders increased 1.33 billion yuan, reduced by 2.538 billion yuan, net reduction of 1.2 billion yuan, net reduction for two consecutive weeks of decline, only one-fifth of the peak in March. Last week, the scale of reductions was only about one-third of the first week of April, and the scale of increase in holdings increased significantly, reaching about 6 billion yuan.

    Public offering: the more you fall, the more you buy.

    When talking about the different performances of the Chinese and US stock markets, many industry insiders said that the domestic market has fully predicted the external disturbance factors, and the obvious improvement of the domestic macro economy will become the A-share “Dinghai Shenzhen”, which will form an important support for the stability of the stock market.

    A public fund manager in a banking department in Beijing said that from the current public information on Sino-US trade frictions, China's response to this preparation is full, courteous and more confident. China's prospects for Sino-US trade wars are also aimed at a win-win situation. This also serves as an important foundation for "warning and promoting" and further negotiations in the future. From the news, in view of the weak influence of today's A-shares, China's stock market trades with China and the United States. The trend of the war has been fully expected and digested, indicating that the Sino-US trade dispute has raided A-shares since the third quarter of 2018, causing the stock market crash to come to an end.

    In the view of the fund manager, unlike the macro environment of “internal and external troubles” in which the domestic market has been de-leveraging and the economy bottomed out last year, this year’s domestic market is dominated by stable leverage, whether it is monetary easing or economic incentives such as tax cuts and tax cuts. The policy is expected to allow the domestic economy to bottom out during the year, and the macroeconomic fundamentals will show signs of improvement. The external disturbance factors cannot reverse the trend of the domestic economy continuing to pick up.

    The fund manager also said, "If the stock market continues to adjust in the future, we will adopt the operation idea of ​​'buy more and more, buy bottom, add bottom position'. At present, the valuation of A shares is already at the bottom of the market. If the market has a panic decline, it is a jiacang. Good opportunity."

    Wei Fengchun, chief macro strategist of Bosera Fund, also believes that although the external situation changes to suppress market sentiment in the short term, macroeconomic policies have begun to respond to changes in the external environment, and measures such as tax reduction and tax reduction have certain support for fundamentals. At present, A shares are in a period of shock, and it is expected that the oversold rebound caused by future emotional repairs may continue.

    Private placement: limited A-share adjustment space

    The reporter interviewed the 10 billion private placements such as Xingshi and Yuanle, and they are optimistic about A shares. They believe that the adjustment of A shares is limited. As the profitability of the company grows, the future probability will rise upwards.

    Fang Lei, a manager of Xingshi Investment Fund, believes that compared with 2018, the first, 2019 liquidity has improved significantly, the central bank has carried out multiple RRR cuts or targeted RRR cuts, and the growth rate of social welfare has rebounded sharply. Second, the domestic economy Compared with last year's marginal improvement, GDP in the first quarter was flat, PMI overall trend was stable, and the chain rebounded. Third, from the perspective of import and export, the impact of external uncertainty will be significantly weaker than last year, although the tariff increase will be Exports have brought some pressure, but the impact on the economy is not fatal, and the policy of tax cuts and reductions that continue to advance can be largely offset. It is not difficult to find that the current situation of the market and the worst of the previous lows are also flat, and more is obviously improved. Then even if the market continues to adjust, the low position should be significantly higher than the previous 2400 points.

    "At present, the adjustment has reached the position of 2800-2900. Considering the growth of the company's profitability, it can be said that the market has further limited space, and the future will return to the upward direction with great probability." Fang Lei said.

    Source Music Assets said that the next economic policy will be transformed from the first quarter of the currency to the financial force, including tax cuts and infrastructure, while focusing on institutional reforms, especially financial supply-side reforms and state-owned enterprise reforms. After the market is properly closed, waiting for the policy, the macro-first indicator, and the early cycle industry to gradually show some signs of bottoming out, it will run along the rhythm of profit expectations.

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